samosa 23:12 PM - Sep 13 2022

Wednesday, September 14th Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • What a day... CPI came in above expectations on topline and core. That triggered a violent selloff that ultimately ended us going from 414 to 393 in one session. 
  • All bullish thesis' took a nasty hit today and the bears are back in control. 

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?

  • Wednesday - PPI Data at 8:30
  • Thursday - Retail Sales Data at 8:30am
  • Friday - Quad Witching Day (OpEx)

Current Positions and Plays:

  • My SPX strangle worked beautifully and I exied near the open with a massive profit. I then grabbed puts for a few weeks out and rode it down all the way to the close. This traded ended up making me more than the strangle. Back to all cash. 

What Do I Think?

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min is now oversold and the 1 hour chart is slightly under an oversold reading. The 4 hour and Daily are neutral. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 390 is the .236 and 407 is the .382.
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382 and 418 is the .286. 
  • We got a hint from the Biden Admin today that they are looking at buying oil at $80 a barrel to refill the strategic reserves. This is an indicator that oil prices could go up in the winter which is a high inflation tailwind. Also, when oil goes up, tech tends to come down. So keep this in mind with any long term thesis. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for WEDNESDAY for SPY:

  • Scenario 1: SPY gets to 396 and starts to face some resistance. I will re-enter my puts as I have a 390 target that we will test before FOMC. 
  • Scenario 2: SPY reaches 390 and bounces. I will wait for a reversal signal and if one presents itself on the 15 or 30 min chart, then I will re-enter my puts and ride them until FOMC. 
  • Scenario 3: SPY rips higher to and tests 400. I will be waiting on a reversal signal to enter puts. 
  • There is no scenario where I will play calls until FOMC.  
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 383 > 387 > 390 > 393 > 396 > 400 > 404.40
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Created By: samosa
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