What Happened? - 

• We had a lot of data this morning with strong retail sales and strong jobless claims leading the way. 
• The SPY started pretty weak and ended up moving down near 390.20 early in the day. Buyers stepped in near lunch and ripped the market higher to 395 in a few candles. 
• That bounce was the 390 reaction that everyone was waiting on. But unfortunately for bulls, the sellers stepped in and moved us right back down under the key 390 level towards the end of the day. 
• Bulls were able to close the day above 390, but that seems to be gone now thanks to FDX's earnings report. Their guidance was brutal. 

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?

• Friday - Quad Witching Day (OpEx)
• Friday - UoM Consumer Sentiment at 10am

Current Positions and Plays:

• I sold my SPX puts at the end of the day on the 390 break and rolled them into longer dated SPX puts for November. I am anticipating that we just slowly head lower now. The November play is SPX 3730p for 11/30. I will look at grabbing some October puts for 3800 tomorrow if we bounce at all. 

What Do I Think?

• SPY Technicals - The 30 min and 1 hour charts are slightly under an oversold reading. The 4 hour and Daily are neutral. 
• SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 390 is the .236 and 407 is the .382.
• SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382 and 418 is the .286. 
• The 390 level has been broken here in the the futures session thanks to the FDX earnings report. This is now looking more likely to test the next big level at 380 before Wednesday's big FOMC meeting. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for FRIDAY for SPY:

• We have quad witching on Friday which can bring a lot of volatility to the market. I am expecting random spurts and ultimately makes predicting a trend for the day really difficult. 
• We should see a gap down at the start of the day based on how the futures have reacted to FDX. I would expect that dip to be temporary and a retest of 390 being possible based on some rebalancing, UoM report and/or options wizardy. Any rip up we get, I will be building an October puts position to hold for a few days next week before FOMC. No real levels here for me that matter, just looking for move upwards and reversal candles to signal entries. 
• There is no scenario where I will play calls until FOMC.  
• NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
• This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

• $SPY - levels 380 > 383 > 387 > 390 > 393 > 396 > 400 > 404.40