What Happened? - 

• We had chop pretty much all day but did test 373.50 a few times and that seemed to hold as support. Towards the end of the day we got a nice bounce off of that level and ran all the way to 377 in a little over an hour. And then in the last 10 minutes we dropped all the way back down to 374. It was a very interesting close.
• The price action to me though was very important, especially the last 10 mins of the day. We can confidently say that the move from 373.50 to 377 was a technical bounce on a support level. Well, how do you feel comfortable buying the next technical bounce when that one got evaporated in 10 mins. I think the market psychology enters the picture and people will not be very willing to buy the next technical bounce until the June lows are tested. 

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?

• Friday - PMI Data at 9:45am EST. 
• Friday - JPow with another speech at 2:00pm EST. 

Current Positions and Plays:

• I am still holding a healthy put position for 10/31. Until we break above 380 or below 373, I don't see the need to sell these puts. I had great entries on them and just need to stick to my thesis. 

What Do I Think?

• SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour, and the daily is slightly above an oversold reading. The 4 hour chart is now just in oversold territory. 
• SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 362 is the .000 line. This looks like where we are headed. 
• SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 
• SPY should see a reaction near 373 and it will be interesting to see if the fundamental tailwinds just push us right through it to test the June lows of 362. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for FRIDAY for SPY:

• Same scenarios as yesterday. I do believe the JPow event is a nothing event, but that doesn't mean the market thinks the same. So if we chop leading into his event, I may look to cover my puts and just get out of the way of his speech. Since it won't be a big deal, the market could rally as a relief that he didn't wreck the market. I am still debating this scenario and will know more once we get closer to that 2pm time. 
• Scenario 1: SPY tests or gaps below 373. This could trigger a swift move to the June lows of 362. 
• Scenario 2: SPY bounces and retests 380. This is a fade the rip scenario and will create a good opportunity to enter a put.
• Scenario 3: We consolidate between 375 and 380. This is just a sit back and wait for a level test to make a decision. This could work out some technicals which could make entering puts attractive again. 
• The next major data release that can bring Bulls hope is the PCE data next Friday. I am not seeing anything until then for bulls to hang their hat on. 
• NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
• This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

• $SPY - levels 362 > 367 > 370 >373 > 375 > 380 > 383 > 387 > 390