samosa 22:38 PM - Sep 26 2022

Tuesday, September 27th Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • SPY range: 363 to 370.
  • It was a pretty wild day considering all the macro events swirling with the DXY, Bank of England and the 10 Year yield all coming into focus. 
  • The DXY and TNX (10 year yield) exploded higher once the Bank of England announced that they are not looking to do any rate hikes until the November 23rd meeting. The consensus throughout in the market was that they would do something to help the GBP from falling more vs the Dollar, but they decided that no change was needed right now. This is pretty shocking to me.
  • With that event, I am also pretty surprised that the SPY did not make a new YTD low. This is telling me that if the DXY and TNX cool a little, look out for a nice pop in the markets. 
  • All eyes are on AAPL and whether it can hold on to the all important 150 level. A weekly close below this level, and we could see a downward move come fast and hard.

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?

  • We have a lot of Fed Speakers this week. Check the full calendar here: stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
  • Tuesday - JPow speaks on digital finance at 7:30am EST (this is a nothing event)
  • Tuesday - Durable goods data at 8:30am EST
  • Tuesday - Consumer Confidence Index at 10am EST
  • I will enter the next few days in tomorrows preview, but know that Friday has PCE data and that is the biggest event of the week imo. 

Current Positions and Plays:

  • I sold my small put swing right at the open for a profit. I then re-entered a SPX put when the BoE announced they are not doing any update on their monetary policy. I sold this for a nice gain and I am back to all cash now waiting on a bounce. 

What Do I Think?

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min is neutral. The 1 hour is slightly above an oversold reading. The 4 hour chart and Daily are now just in oversold territory. 
  • SPY Technicals - Short term is ok, long term is a little oversold. I expect a move up or consolidation in the next few days. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 362 is the .000 line. This looks like where we are headed. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for TUESDAY for SPY:

  • All eyes are on the DXY and TNX. If they start to crack the market will move up. But if they keep ticking up, the market will just keep slowly bleeding. 
  • I still think we are in for a few weeks of chop. I am seeing a 10 to 15 point range with us probably setting new lows at 355 and then just staying range bound up to 373.
  • Scenario 1: SPY tests or gaps below 362. This should get a bullish reaction back up to 370 just based on the oversold conditions. But the DXY and TNX have to cool a little for the bounce to happen.  
  • Scenario 2: SPY bounces and retests 373. This will work out some technicals and presents a nice fade the rip scenario and will create a good opportunity to enter a put.
  • Scenario 3: We consolidate between 365 and 370. This is just a sit back and wait for a level test to make a decision. This could work out some technicals which could make entering puts attractive again. 
  • The next major data release that can bring Bulls hope is the PCE data on Friday. I am not seeing anything until then for bulls to hang their hat on. 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 356 (200 SMA) > 360 > 362 > 367 > 370 >373 > 375 > 380
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Created By: samosa
Created: Jun 22, 2020
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