samosa 22:21 PM - Sep 27 2022

Wednesday, September 28th Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • SPY range: 360 to 370.
  • Another wild day that saw us gapping up in the morning and ran right into 370 again. Then the 10am Consumer Data came out and we saw the DXY and TNX spike due to the strong consumer data. This was all I needed to see to enter puts. 
  • The market hit a new SPY YTD low and just kind of lingered around it for hours. No big bounce and also no big breakdown. Interesting to say the least.
  • All eyes are still on AAPL and whether it can hold on to the all important 150 level. A weekly close below this level, and we could see a downward move come fast and hard.

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?

  • We have a lot of Fed Speakers this week. Check the full calendar here:
  • Tuesday Night - Apple has announced that is not increasing iPhone production due to demand not materializing. This will move the market down. 
  • Wednesday - Fed Speakers all day. Nothing event imo. 
  • Friday has PCE data and that is the biggest event of the week imo. 

Current Positions and Plays:

  • I scalped a put when the consumer data was released. I am now all cash heading into tomorrow. 

What Do I Think?

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min is neutral. The 1 hour is slightly above an oversold reading. The 4 hour chart and Daily are now just in oversold territory. 
  • SPY Technicals - Short term is ok, long term is a little oversold. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 362 is the .000 line. This looks like where we are headed. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 


  • All eyes staying on the DXY and TNX. If they start to crack the market will move up. But if they keep ticking up, the market will just keep slowly bleeding. 
  • I still think we are in for a few weeks of chop. I am seeing a 10 to 15 point range with us probably setting new lows at 355 and then just staying range bound up to 373. The Apple news Tuesday night could be the catalyst to get us to 355. 
  • Scenario 1: SPY tests or gaps below 360. This will be all because of AAPL so I will be monitoring it to see if it can recover that all important 150 level. I may have to chase puts if it fails to. 
  • Scenario 2: SPY bounces and retests 370. This will work out some technicals and presents a nice fade the rip scenario and will create a good opportunity to enter a put.
  • Scenario 3: We consolidate between 360 and 368. This is just a sit back and wait for a level test to make a decision. This could work out some technicals which could make entering puts attractive again. 
  • The next major data release that can bring Bulls hope is the PCE data on Friday. I am not seeing anything until then for bulls to hang their hat on. 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 356 (200 SMA) > 360 > 362 > 367 > 370 >373 > 375 > 380
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Created By: samosa
Created: Jun 22, 2020
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