samosa 07:18 AM - Sep 29 2022

Thursday, September 29th Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • SPY range: 363 to 372.
  • What a swing of emotions yesterday. The AAPL news that came out late on Tuesday was going to push the market way down on Wednesday and in premarket we hit 359.50. And then...
  • The Bank of England announced they are no longer doing QT and actually pivoting to QE. This was the spark the market needed and we moved higher on the insane theory that JPow could follow B0E's lead and pivot. 
  • The relief rally worked out all the oversold conditions on the charts and it stopped short of filling the gap of 373.50. But at least for a day, the bulls can see a green candle on the daily chart again. 
  • All eyes are still on AAPL and whether it can hold on to the all important 150 level. A weekly close below this level, and we could see a downward move come fast and hard.

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?

  • We have a lot of Fed Speakers this week. Check the full calendar here:
  • Thursday - Final Q2 GDP at 8:30am
  • Thursday - Fed Speakers all day. These are now important thanks to the BoE actions. Any hint of any of them pivoting this year, and the market will blast higher. 
  • Friday has PCE data and that is the biggest event of the week imo. 

Current Positions and Plays:

  • I scalped calls all day for a nice profit and then at 370, I bought a SPX put for 10/31. I am going to keep building this position on any pop up we get. 

What Do I Think?

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min and 1 hour are amazingly getting a little overbought. The 4 hour chart and Daily are now just out of oversold territory. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 362 is the .000 line. This looks like where we are headed. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 


  • I do think that Thursday has the ingredients for a slow green trend day. With PCE on Friday, I would anticipate not many folks will be eager to enter anything. So you could see a repeat of today, where we just slowly grind higher by the algos. 
  • All eyes staying on the DXY and TNX. If they start to crack the market will move up. But if they keep ticking up, the market will just keep slowly bleeding. 
  • (Original from Monday's preview) I still think we are in for a few weeks of chop. I am seeing a 10 to 15 point range with us probably setting new lows at 355 and then just staying range bound up to 373.
  • Scenario 1: SPY tests or gaps below 360. This would be a major win for the bears. To get right back to June lows after a nice 10 point rally by the bulls would be a major sign of weakness in the market. This could start the capitulation process. I would most likely grab another put down here as confirmation that we are indeed headed much lower. 
  • Scenario 2: SPY bounces and retests 373. This will continue work out some technicals and presents a nice fade the rip scenario and will create a good opportunity to enter a put. I will keep adding puts on the way up for farther out until there is a piece of economic data that tells me otherwise. 
  • Scenario 3: We consolidate between 363 and 370. This is just a sit back and wait for a level test to make a decision. This could continue to work out some technicals which could make entering puts attractive again. 
  • The next major data release that can bring Bulls hope is the PCE data on Friday. I am not seeing anything until then for bulls to hang their hat on. 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 356 (200 SMA) > 360 > 362 > 367 > 370 >373 > 375 > 380
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Created By: samosa
Created: Jun 22, 2020
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