samosa 22:54 PM - Sep 29 2022

Friday, September 30th Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • SPY range: 359.70 to 367.11.
  • This week has been the most entertaining chop fest of all time. It just feels like SPY is on the verge of collapse and then it comes back up for a little breather. But how much more can it take?
  • We had a lot of data in the morning with most of it coming in at expectations including the GDP reading. So all eyes were on Bullard who spoke at 9:30am. 
  • Bullard gave us a lot of information and he made it very clear that the Fed is not looking to pivot until jobs cool and inflation cools. That sparked the sell off as it was yet another reminder that the Fed Pivot is off in the distance. 

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?

  • We have a lot of Fed Speakers this week. Check the full calendar here:
  • Friday - EU Inflation data at 5:00am EST - This will impact the DXY. 
  • Friday - PCE Inflation Data at 8:30am EST - All eyes on the Core reading here. 
  • Friday - Personal Income Data at 8:30am EST
  • Friday - Fed Speakers all morning. There is like 4 of them from 8:30am to 9am.
  • Friday - UoM Consumer Sentiment at 10am. Strong consumer here is another bearish indicator. 
  • Friday is also the day Russia is looking at annexing parts of Ukraine. 
  • Friday - End of the week, month and quarter. We will have a lot of rebalancing and moving going on. 
  • Friday - Tesla's AI Day kicks off at 8pm EST.

Current Positions and Plays:

  • I sold my put near the open since the DXY seemed to be a little weaker. It was a nice profit, and then I immediately regretted it after hearing Bullard's comments. I started to build a put position all day and ended up with a rather large core position for 10/31. I kept looking at the schedule Friday and thought we have a recipe for a major move down, so I am going for it. 

What Do I Think?

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min and 1 hour are neutral. The 4 hour chart and Daily are now just slightly out of oversold territory. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 362 is the .000 line. We still have not closed below this line. Just made it over it today. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382.  349 is the .500.
  • SPY - The 200 Weekly SMA is 358.


  • All eyes are on the economic data in the morning, specifically PCE data. The scenarios are pretty cut and dry here to me. 
  • Scenario 1: PCE Core comes in at expectations - I think this defaults to the current trend which is bearish. We should see the fade the rip strategy keep playing out and slowly bleed out. 
    • If this results happen you then got to look at the UoM Consumer Confidence data point at 10am EST for a trend. Strong consumer = bearish, weak consumer = bullish. 
  • Scenario 2: PCE Core comes in hot - We are breaking under 360 and setting new lows with a possible 200 Weekly SMA break. 
  • Scenario 3: PCE Core comes in cool (below 4.4%) - This could spark a rally up that fills the gap at 373.50. This would also finally give the bulls some data to lean on that can be big enough to have a sustainable rally.  
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 356 (200 SMA) > 360 > 362 > 367 > 370 >373 > 375 > 380
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Created By: samosa
Created: Jun 22, 2020
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