What Happened? - 

• SPY range: 366 to 357.
• I had mentioned that last week was the most entertaining chop fest of all time. It just feels like SPY is on the verge of collapse and then it comes back up for a little breather. But it finally gave up right at the close on Friday. 
• PCE Core Data came in above expectations at 4.9% vs an expected 4.7%. 
• Ukraine and Russia threw a wild card with possible peace talks. Market moved up on that news, but the Fed fears ended up being too much to ignore and a big move got us under the June lows and the 200 Weekly SMA. 

What Am I Looking Out For This Week?

• TSLA reported delivery numbers and they were all time highs for the company, but below expectations. How will the market react?
• Oil is in the news again as OPEC+ is looking to limit the amount of oil in the upcoming Wednesday meeting. Can Oil hold the SPY up even if Tech giants TSLA and AAPL start to crack?
• Jobs data this week (Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday) will add gas to the fire for the market as all signs are pointing to a hot jobs number with consumer sentiment still strong. Bears need Jobs to stay hot so the Fed can stay comfortable being aggressive. Bulls need a slowing jobs number to put doubts in the Fed's aggressive approach. 
• Ukraine Russia "peace" talks and if they progress to an actual meeting.
• Fear and Panic are in the markets now. Will Capitulation start to happen which will completely throw technicals out the window for a quick moment. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)?

• We have a lot of Fed Speakers this week. Check the full calendar here: stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
• Jobs Data is the key thing to watch this week. Job numbers need to come in bad for bulls or strong for bears. 
• Monday - PMI Data at 9:45am
• Tuesday - 3 Fed Speakers at 9am including Williams who is one of the important ones to listen to according Maverick. 
• Tuesday - JOLTS Jobs opening at 10am. This is an important report. 
• Tuesday - LaGarde Speech which could have DXY implications at 11am. 
• Wednesday - ADP Employment Change at 8:15am. This is the private sector's report on the jobs changes. Not as big as Friday's report. 
• Friday - Nonfarm Payrolls at 8:30am. This is the biggest data release of the week. 

Current Positions and Plays:

• I sold my bigger puts position before the 358 break when we got near 359 for a nice profit. I then re-entered the position when we broke 358 and I am now holding a large position in SPX puts for 10/31. Bears took control on Friday and it looks like they are not going to give it up. 

SPY Technicals - 

• SPY Technicals - The 30 min and 1 hour are just above oversold. The 4 hour chart and Daily are now in oversold territory. 
• SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 362 is the .000 line. We finally closed below this number and in a convincing fashion. Bulls need this level to get recaptured for any hope. 
• SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 349 is the .500. 318.24 is the .618
• SPY - The 200 Weekly SMA is 358. If the bulls can't reclaim this level, then it really is lights out to the pre Covid highs. 
• SPY - The Weekly chart looks like more pain is going to come. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for MONDAY for SPY:

• I have my bearish position now and I will now only look for a reason to sell it. Whether that comes in a form of a Fed Pivot (not likely) or if buyers start regaining the key levels of the June lows again. 
• For put entries, you need to look at the test of the 358 line if it comes. If you are chasing this move down, I would wait and play a strangle on the Tuesday Jobs Data and the Friday Jobs Data. Those will either offer the bulls some hope, or the bears more confidence that the Fed will make the market go lower. 
• NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
• This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

• $SPY - levels 344 > 347 > 350 > 355 > 356 (200 SMA) > 360 > 362 > 367 > 370