samosa 22:22 PM - Oct 03 2022

Tuesday, October 4th Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • SPY range. on Monday: 359 to 368.
  • They set the bear trap near the open when the market popped and dropped in the first 10 mins. I expected some choppy waters today, but then the WSJ published an article that said the UN has requested the Fed to back off on interest rate hikes. There was no stopping SPY after this especially with its oversold conditions. 
  • It was a low volume trend day with no major economic data to stop a relief rally.

What Am I Looking Out For This Week?

  • Fed Pivot Theory is back and better than ever. I hate every part of this, but the markets are rallying on this optimism so we need to take it serious. The Fed will keep coming out and letting the market know that they are not pausing anytime soon, but the market will ignore them. I am now watching whether the market wants to take economic data seriously and we get our first test of that tomorrow with the JOLTS data. 
  • TSLA reported delivery numbers and they were all time highs for the company, but below expectations. How will the market react?
    • The market reacted by selling TSLA off. This is one we want to watch tomorrow to see if it can recover. 
  • Oil is in the news again as OPEC+ is looking to limit the amount of oil in the upcoming Wednesday meeting.
  • Jobs data this week (Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday) will add gas to the fire for the market as all signs are pointing to a hot jobs number with consumer sentiment still strong. Bears need Jobs to stay hot so the Fed can stay comfortable being aggressive. Bulls need a slowing jobs number to put doubts in the Fed's aggressive approach. 
  • Ukraine Russia "peace" talks and if they progress to an actual meeting.
  • Fear and Panic are in the markets now. Will Capitulation start to happen which will completely throw technicals out the window for a quick moment. 
    • This seems to be on ice for a moment. This will need a catalyst for fear to re-enter the market and it come in the form of hot Jobs data.  

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)?

  • We have a lot of Fed Speakers this week. Check the full calendar here:
  • Jobs Data is the key thing to watch this week. Job numbers need to come in bad for bulls or strong for bears. 
  • Tuesday - 3 Fed Speakers at 9am including Williams who is one of the important ones to listen to according Maverick. 
  • Tuesday - JOLTS Jobs opening at 10am. This is an important report. 
  • Tuesday - LaGarde Speech which could have DXY implications at 11am. 
  • Wednesday - ADP Employment Change at 8:15am. This is the private sector's report on the jobs changes. Not as big as Friday's report. 
  • Friday - Nonfarm Payrolls at 8:30am. This is the biggest data release of the week. 

Current Positions and Plays:

  • I am holding my big puts position and got destroyed today on the relief rally. I do have until Halloween for these puts, but if the JOLTS data tomorrow is bullish, then I will need to make a decision to take the L and sit back and look to reset for a strangle play for Friday's Nonfarm payrolls. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min chart is getting close to overbought. The 1 hour and 4 hour are neutral and the Daily is slightly above oversold.  
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 362 is the .000 line. Bulls got this level back today and it was a very big win for them. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 349 is the .500. 318.24 is the .618
  • SPY - The 200 Weekly SMA is 358. The bulls need to keep this level. 
  • SPY - The Weekly chart looks like more pain is going to come. 


  • Scenario 1 - The JOLTS data comes out at 10am and you just need to play the reaction for a scalp. This data is not big enough to set a weekly trend but it has enough weight to make a day trend. 
  • Scenario 2 - If the JOLTS data is a nothing event, then you are looking at whether SPY can test 370.50 again and fill the gap from last Thursday. This would be an objective spot to enter a short position. Or you can be more conservative and wait for a 373 test. 
  • Scenario 3 - Take the week off until Thursday near the close and enter a nice size strangle play for Friday's jobs data. 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 344 > 347 > 350 > 355 > 356 (200 SMA) > 360 > 362 > 367 > 370 > 373 > 376

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Created By: samosa
Created: Jun 22, 2020
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