samosa 23:08 PM - Oct 04 2022

Wednesday, October 5th Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • SPY range. on Tuesday: 372 to 378.
  • Another day and another green pump. We gapped up overnight and ran right to 377 after the JOLTS data and just stuck there for most of the day.
  • JOLTS data came in under expectations which means jobs could be starting to slowing. This was a bullish reading and it will be interesting to see if the Friday's jobs data aligns with this report.  
  • Elon has officially purchased Twitter and that sent Tesla's stock down. I anticipate this selling to continue into the week as the fear now arises that Elon's time will now be split up against 3 major companies. 


What Am I Looking Out For This Week?

  • Fed Pivot Theory is back and better than ever. I hate every part of this, but the markets are rallying on this optimism so we need to take it serious. The next landmine to stop the optimism is the Jobs data on Friday. 
  • Oil is in the news again as OPEC+ is looking to limit the amount of oil in the upcoming Wednesday meeting.
  • Jobs data this week (Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday) will add gas to the fire for the market as all signs are pointing to a hot jobs number with consumer sentiment still strong. Bears need Jobs to stay hot so the Fed can stay comfortable being aggressive. Bulls need a slowing jobs number to put doubts in the Fed's aggressive approach. 
  • Ukraine Russia "peace" talks and if they progress to an actual meeting.

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)?

  • We have a lot of Fed Speakers this week. Check the full calendar here: stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
  • Jobs Data is the key thing to watch this week. Job numbers need to come in bad for bulls or strong for bears. 
  • Wednesday - ADP Employment Change at 8:15am. This is the private sector's report on the jobs changes. Not as big as Friday's report. 
  • Friday - Nonfarm Payrolls at 8:30am. This is the biggest data release of the week. 

Current Positions and Plays:

  • I took a nasty L on my Halloween puts and rolled them into November puts with a better strike price. I will look to build this position if we keep climbing. I am also considering doing small scalps to play the trend. My goal though is to keep building a nice put position for when the Fed Pivot theory gets shot by wither data or by JPow. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min chart is overbought. The 1 hour is almost overbought. The 4 hour and Daily are neutral.  
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 362 is the .000 line. Bulls got this level back today and it was a very big win for them. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 349 is the .500.
  • SPY - The 200 Weekly SMA is 358. The bulls need to keep this level. 
  • SPY - The Weekly chart looks like more pain is going to come. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for WEDNESDAY for SPY:

  • We don't much on the calendar tomorrow so we could see a choppy day. I am looking for put entries on a 380 break to add to my core position. 
  • I will be waiting until 10:30am and see if I can set up some intraday Fibs and try and identify any scalps 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 360 > 362 > 367 > 370 > 373 > 376 > 380 > 383 > 386
1
Login to join the discussion!

Comments

Maverick - 1 year ago
I think it's possible we could see 385/390 on this run BUT if the Fed Pivot theory doesn't catch some validation from JPow or others, then it's going to go away as fast as it came, then we're just left with a technical bounce and a DXY that's going to moonshot.

StonksChat

Created By: samosa
Created: Jun 22, 2020
Total Followers: 6
Twitter: @stonks_chat
Follow
Official group for Stonks.Chat.

Any information in this group is Not Financial Advice
Link Copied to Clipboard!