Maverick 23:40 PM - Jun 28 2020

VXRT - Influenza data & Operation Warp Speed

VXRT - currently 8.04 (but was around 9.00 in after hours)
  • O/S 79M, 49M float
  • Universal influenza vaccine Phase 1 data due by June 30
  • New CEO - Andrei Floroiu - as of June 15
  • They put out a PR every day except Monday last week - https://investors.vaxart.com/press-releases
  • The mega news was obviously being picked for the Warp Speed Program https://investors.vaxart.com/news-releases/news-release-details/vaxarts-covid-19-vaccine-selected-us-governments-operation-warp
  • Big difference for VXRT is theirs is oral vs everybody else’s is injection
  • Everything about this deal looks like NVAX all over again
  • Next announcement on Warp Speed for VXRT should be how much funding they’re getting.  Something like this: https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/06/16/fact-sheet-explaining-operation-warp-speed.html
  • They’d be crazy not to do an offering in the next 30 days, I suspect they will.  This would be to fund the non-COVID stuff.
  • I think this will be 15-20 on the government funding announcement (Monday/Tuesday?), then dip down below 12-13 for a while after the Influenza data is out (this week) and then pick back up once they actually start the covid trials and largely just follow NVAX path.  Just go back to Feb 26, 2020 on NVAX chart to see what the chart should look like over the next 3-4 months (not chart below stops at end of April, zoomed in..).  40+ by end of summer, I think.
 
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Comments

Maverick - 3 years ago
Rough hit piece out on VXRT from NYT. πŸ₯΄

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/25/business/coronavirus-vaccine-profits-vaxart.html

I don't see anything in there that isn't already known to those that have been following for a while, but it will definitely cause a sell-off on Monday - particularly the seemingly strong comment from the government (if they were even quoted correctly...).  It doesn't change my position - I'm still in it for the OWS funding announcement, but as I noted below, it's still weeks away.
Maverick - 3 years ago
VXRT dipped to low 13's today.  I wasn't around to see it hit that.  By the time I noticed it, it had fully recovered and gone green for the day.  πŸ’ͺ

That influenza data has got to drop soon.  Then OWS funding after that (still a few weeks away, I think).

I picked some up at 15.75 just to be in the game, though I don't think it moves much until news drops.
Maverick - 3 years ago
No change here.  It's going to trend sideways until some news - which I'd expect within a few weeks.
Maverick - 3 years ago
I am really impressed with how well VXRT is holding up under all this profit taking.  They really must have exhausted their ATM/shelf offering and I'm really hoping that Boyd is done converting his warrants.

I'm pretty tempted to get back in, even up here around 16.00.  

I don't think the news is going to come as fast I was thinking, upon further reflecting....but there are several news pieces and the Universal Influenza data w/Janssen is overdue at this point.

I think the OWS news is going to be a minute until after the non-human primate trial data is in.

A very worthy hold for weeks/months.
Maverick - 3 years ago
VXRT - I exited today at 14.50, immediately regretted it, bought back in (smaller) at 15.70 and then sold it all 17.00 by the close.

I think it's going to cool off - unless some of that news hits that is due.  I'd like to pick this back up under 14, but this stock is so strong, I'm not counting on it.
Patrick M - 3 years ago
I'm going to hold.  It's been very difficult not to take profits.  But I averaged down to 7.91 last week so I have some breathing room. 

 I feel like 24 is in the cards in the next few weeks and I don't want to give that up. Because this thing moves quickly.  

Patience, grasshopper.  
Ace6 - 3 years ago
Yeh. I can’t miss out on the real move coming soon. 
Maverick - 3 years ago
What move did you end up making today?
Maverick - 3 years ago
+58% today to close at 12.63 (in after hours) on massive volume.

They had news out that said they raised $90M using that S-3 and noted that it's completely exhausted.  They'll need to file another shelf registration to issue any more shares.  The wording suggested they wouldn't need to do that.  https://investors.vaxart.com/news-releases/news-release-details/vaxart-raises-approximately-90m-gross-proceeds-through-its

It took everything I had not to lock the profit in here (from 8.39), but I don't want to be out if/when the OWS funding news hits.  After 2+ weeks of silence, I'm hoping that today's price, volume, and press release is the signal that the party has resumed the music. πŸ₯³
Maverick - 3 years ago
It has been like watching paint dry (except that one blastoff at 3:30pm last week) for two weeks with no news.  I've been impressed that it's held up as well as it has, frankly.  The only news that has come out has been larger holders selling, an S-8, and an S-3.

News this week about OWS funding? Pretty please? πŸ¦πŸ’
Maverick - 3 years ago
BACK IN THE GREEN, BOYS!  After hours close at 9.30.

It went ballistic at 3:30pm today.

Not sure if Armistice finally stopped selling (I think he converted more warrants) or if news leaked about OWS funding, but it was a sight to behold. πŸš€

I'm expecting the rally to continue in premarket on Wednesday, then it's going to depend on news at 8am as to which way the rest of the day goes.

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Maverick - 3 years ago
Palms soaked at this point, but I'm still in it with the 8.39 average. πŸ˜…

I was shocked there was no news last week.

I will fall out of my chair if there's no news this week.
Maverick - 3 years ago
I averaged down on that dip into the 6's.  My average is now 8.39.  Palms getting sweaty....
Maverick - 3 years ago
I traded this last year in the 2's and when it took off last week, I just ignored it.  Costly mistake!

I ended up - very late - buying at an average of 10.15.  I think the worst case is that I baghold for a couple weeks.

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Offerings are the major danger, so always be mindful of cash position of the company you're trading.
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