Maverick 00:19 AM - Jul 06 2022

Market Day Ahead - July 6, 2022 - SPY - 380/390 range; FOMC minutes on Wed

What Happened Today (Tuesday)
  • SPY traded in a nice range: 373 to 382
  • Both my scenarios were incorrect at the open, so I did nothing.
  • I rode my weekend calls down to a nasty (but unrealized) loss, then averaged down around 373 test as a hail mary.  Somehow…this worked.  I closed out with a small profit around 2:30pm.
  • Went right back into the fire at 3pm because it was so damn strong and that gave me a tidy profit for the day when I closed out near the bell.  I hung my spurs up after that. Held nothing overnight.
  • Around 3am EST, the DXY smacked the market down around 8 points - especially hitting commodities and financials - and held that all the way to the open.  I didn’t see that one coming today.  EUR hit a 20 year low against the USD.  Pretty amazing, really.
  • It was pretty quiet after that opening shock was absorbed.  As there was no other news and our charts were pointing bullish otherwise, we just ticked up all day, led by a strong QQQ rally - pull up chart, it was impressive.

Looking Ahead (Wednesday)
  • Reports: FOMC minutes are at 2pm.  This is probably the event of the week (bar is low..).  Everybody will be looking for any nuggets about 0.50 vs 0.75 for July meeting.
  • Note (to self): I need to research more about what’s going on in oil right now.  I’ve sort of checked out on that.
  • SPY levels: 364 > 368 > 372 > 375 > 380 > 385 > 390
  • Chart - Weekly: Bearish (no end in sight long-term)
  • Chart - Daily: Bullish.  RSI turning up, clouds about to cross.
  • Chart - 4h: Bullish - BUT cloud are about to cross into bearish (interesting note - not sure on this..)
  • Chart - 1h: Bullish - very
  • Chart - 30m: Bullish to 385 - then let it play out

SPY Trading Plans (Wednesday)
  • Scenario 1:  We open at/around 382, pulls back to 380, support holds, knock around 380-383, close at 385 on “expected” FOMC results.
  • Scenario 2: We open at/around 385, let VWAP play out a bit, then tech takes us on to 390 ahead of FOMC minutes.  
  • Scenario 3: Something negative happens (again) before the open, we grind around whatever it opens at, then we push up to 380 again and have 385 in sights if FOMC minutes are taken positively.
  • I don’t lean towards any scenario.  Let’s see if any of them happen.  I’ve got no position, so let’s do this.

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Maverick's Moves

Created By: Maverick
Created: Feb 8, 2021
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I trade SPY, QQQ, and specific story sectors using technical analysis and gut rubs.

I'll post my thoughts and market moves here.

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