Market Day Ahead - July 12, 2022 - SPY - 375/385; CPI de-risking likely; have a long breakfast, eyes on afternoon action.
What Happened Today (Monday)
- SPY traded in a narrow range of 383.50 to 386.87
- It started coming down in futures on Sunday night and that stuck all the way to the open.
- I exited right at the open, just thrilled I didn’t get my butt kicked from that overnight put I held.
- Then it just smacked right to 384 and traded there for a while and then moved up to almost 387 in a short period of time, only come come all the way back down to 384 and close there.
- 384 was its happy place today and it was the ole chop box - which I avoided.
- DXY was running the show today. It put on a new high above 108 (I expected it this week, but not right out of the gate today). 110 on the way.
- I didn’t see much of anything else happening - though Sunday preview didn’t have anything for Monday. Just news about folks worried about CPI and earnings (well, yeah…)
Looking Ahead (Tuesday)
- Earnings: Pepsi in premarket.
- Reports: Nothing.
- Wherever it opens, I’m only expecting 2-3 points of chop on Tuesday. Until end of day. If the CPI report leaks or there’s just otherwise de-risking - we’ll see a sharp move at some point. 2pm? 3pm?
- DXY - I don’t expect this to calm down. It’s marching to 110 - this month?
- SPY levels: 373 (major) > 375 > 380 (major) > 385 > 390 (major) > 393
- Chart - Weekly: Bearish (Long-term)
- Chart - Daily: Bearish, but a confusing cloud crossing. On watch.
- Chart - 4h: Bearish - RSI turned down today and MACD heading down
- Chart - 1h: Neutral - so chop.
- Chart - 30m: Neutral.
SPY Trading Plans (Tuesday)
- Scenario 1: It opens wherever, no other major news, chop until 2pm. At 2pm, as long as we’re around 385 or below 380 already, I’ll play puts and close by end of day - no way am I holding overnight into CPI on Wednesday.
- Scenario 2: CPI data leaks (didn’t it last time?), it’s cool, and we see it on the chart (+2-3 in a few minutes). We’ll test 390 again.
- Scenario 1 is only one I’m willing to play on Tuesday, may not even do anything. Scenario 2 seems unlikely.
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Maverick's Moves
Created By: | Maverick |
Created: | Feb 8, 2021 |
Total Followers: | 13 |
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I trade SPY, QQQ, and specific story sectors using technical analysis and gut rubs.
I'll post my thoughts and market moves here.
Twitter: twitter.com/stonks_maverick
Substack: mavericksmoves.substack.com
I'll post my thoughts and market moves here.
Twitter: twitter.com/stonks_maverick
Substack: mavericksmoves.substack.com