Maverick 00:15 AM - Jul 12 2022

Market Day Ahead - July 12, 2022 - SPY - 375/385; CPI de-risking likely; have a long breakfast, eyes on afternoon action.

What Happened Today (Monday)
  • SPY traded in a narrow range of 383.50 to 386.87
  • It started coming down in futures on Sunday night and that stuck all the way to the open.
  • I exited right at the open, just thrilled I didn’t get my butt kicked from that overnight put I held.
  • Then it just smacked right to 384 and traded there for a while and then moved up to almost 387 in a short period of time, only come come all the way back down to 384 and close there.
  • 384 was its happy place today and it was the ole chop box - which I avoided.
  • DXY was running the show today.  It put on a new high above 108 (I expected it this week, but not right out of the gate today).  110 on the way.
  • I didn’t see much of anything else happening - though Sunday preview didn’t have anything for Monday.  Just news about folks worried about CPI and earnings (well, yeah…)

Looking Ahead (Tuesday)
  • Earnings: Pepsi in premarket.
  • Reports: Nothing.
  • Wherever it opens, I’m only expecting 2-3 points of chop on Tuesday.  Until end of day.  If the CPI report leaks or there’s just otherwise de-risking - we’ll see a sharp move at some point.  2pm? 3pm?
  • DXY - I don’t expect this to calm down.  It’s marching to 110 - this month?
  • SPY levels:  373 (major) > 375 > 380 (major) > 385 > 390 (major) > 393
  • Chart - Weekly: Bearish (Long-term)
  • Chart - Daily: Bearish, but a confusing cloud crossing.  On watch.
  • Chart - 4h: Bearish - RSI turned down today and MACD heading down 
  • Chart - 1h: Neutral - so chop.
  • Chart - 30m: Neutral.

SPY Trading Plans (Tuesday)
  • Scenario 1: It opens wherever, no other major news, chop until 2pm.  At 2pm, as long as we’re around 385 or below 380 already, I’ll play puts and close by end of day - no way am I holding overnight into CPI on Wednesday.
  • Scenario 2: CPI data leaks (didn’t it last time?), it’s cool, and we see it on the chart (+2-3 in a few minutes).  We’ll test 390 again.
  • Scenario 1 is only one I’m willing to play on Tuesday, may not even do anything.  Scenario 2 seems unlikely.


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Maverick - 1 year ago
Scenario 1 played out almost perfectly. At 2pm, it was just under 385.  Then it started falling apart and went even below 380 (further than I expected).

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Created By: Maverick
Created: Feb 8, 2021
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I trade SPY, QQQ, and specific story sectors using technical analysis and gut rubs.

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