Maverick 00:25 AM - Jul 19 2022

Market Day Ahead - July 19, 2022 - SPY - 375/390 range; probably chop on Tuesday; International CPI in focus.

What Happened Today (Monday)
  • SPY traded 389/380
  • Scenario 1 played out well enough to get me out of my weekend calls. “Scenario 1: If we open above 387, we’re going to test 390.  I don’t see us getting beyond that on Monday (30m/1hr charts) - so I’d look to exit at/before that line.”
  • Then AAPL came in with a buzz kill saying they were slowing hiring/spending on some business units (similar to what GOOG said last week).  That kicked off a 8 point pullback.  I jumped on some puts for an obvious trade, should have held them much longer.  It just kept going until just before the close.
  • I think they just killed earnings season, but we’ll see.
  • That’s it.  Closed out.  Didn’t hold overnight into EU inflation data

Looking Ahead (Tuesday)
  • Reports: EU CPI @ 5am (Final - June). BOE (England) Bailey speaks at 1:45pm EST.
  • Earnings: some industrials (PM), Netflix (AH)
  • This week kicks off ‘real’ earnings season with some of the big tech boys reporting, “the” week is next week with the titans.  I do think AAPL gave us a little preview - at least of next quarter, if nothing else.
  • It’s all about levels on Tuesday, unless we get another AAPL-sized surprise during market hours.
  • DXY going to strut itself early every day this week - keep an eye on that, will make the open challenging.
  • SPY levels:  373 (major) > 375 > 380 (major) > 385 > 390 (major) > 393
  • Chart - Weekly: Neutral/Bearish.  It’s trying to cross into Bullish, but I don’t see it with my Fundamental Hat on
  • Chart - Daily: Neutral.  Looking for a direction.
  • Chart - 4h: Neutral/Bearish.  Winding up for a big move.
  • Chart - 1h: Bearish - this one got knocked back today, back to consolidation range.
  • Chart - 30m: Same as 1h

SPY Trading Plans (Tuesday)
  • Scenario 1: If we at/below 380, puts to 377/375
  • Scenario 2: If we open above 383, calls to 385.
  • I’ve got tight ranges on both these because I think we’re mostly in chop on Tuesday (we certainly were on Monday until AAPL).  Lean Scenario 1.
  • Don’t hold overnight on Tuesday. ⚠️ Way too much new data coming on Wednesday premarket.

Screen Shot 2022-07-19 at 00.24.41.png 232.23 KB
0
Login to join the discussion!

Comments

No comments have been made for Market Day Ahead - July 19, 2022 - SPY - 375/390 range; probably chop on Tuesday; International CPI in focus.. Be the first!

Maverick's Moves

Created By: Maverick
Created: Feb 8, 2021
Total Followers: 13
Follow
I trade SPY, QQQ, and specific story sectors using technical analysis and gut rubs.

I'll post my thoughts and market moves here.

Twitter: twitter.com/stonks_maverick
Substack: mavericksmoves.substack.com
Link Copied to Clipboard!