Market Day Ahead - July 19, 2022 - SPY - 375/390 range; probably chop on Tuesday; International CPI in focus.
What Happened Today (Monday)
- SPY traded 389/380
- Scenario 1 played out well enough to get me out of my weekend calls. “Scenario 1: If we open above 387, we’re going to test 390. I don’t see us getting beyond that on Monday (30m/1hr charts) - so I’d look to exit at/before that line.”
- Then AAPL came in with a buzz kill saying they were slowing hiring/spending on some business units (similar to what GOOG said last week). That kicked off a 8 point pullback. I jumped on some puts for an obvious trade, should have held them much longer. It just kept going until just before the close.
- I think they just killed earnings season, but we’ll see.
- That’s it. Closed out. Didn’t hold overnight into EU inflation data
Looking Ahead (Tuesday)
- Reports: EU CPI @ 5am (Final - June). BOE (England) Bailey speaks at 1:45pm EST.
- Earnings: some industrials (PM), Netflix (AH)
- This week kicks off ‘real’ earnings season with some of the big tech boys reporting, “the” week is next week with the titans. I do think AAPL gave us a little preview - at least of next quarter, if nothing else.
- It’s all about levels on Tuesday, unless we get another AAPL-sized surprise during market hours.
- DXY going to strut itself early every day this week - keep an eye on that, will make the open challenging.
- SPY levels: 373 (major) > 375 > 380 (major) > 385 > 390 (major) > 393
- Chart - Weekly: Neutral/Bearish. It’s trying to cross into Bullish, but I don’t see it with my Fundamental Hat on
- Chart - Daily: Neutral. Looking for a direction.
- Chart - 4h: Neutral/Bearish. Winding up for a big move.
- Chart - 1h: Bearish - this one got knocked back today, back to consolidation range.
- Chart - 30m: Same as 1h
SPY Trading Plans (Tuesday)
- Scenario 1: If we at/below 380, puts to 377/375
- Scenario 2: If we open above 383, calls to 385.
- I’ve got tight ranges on both these because I think we’re mostly in chop on Tuesday (we certainly were on Monday until AAPL). Lean Scenario 1.
- Don’t hold overnight on Tuesday. ⚠️ Way too much new data coming on Wednesday premarket.
Login to join the discussion!
Comments
No comments have been made for Market Day Ahead - July 19, 2022 - SPY - 375/390 range; probably chop on Tuesday; International CPI in focus.. Be the first!
Maverick's Moves
Created By: | Maverick |
Created: | Feb 8, 2021 |
Total Followers: | 13 |
Follow |
I trade SPY, QQQ, and specific story sectors using technical analysis and gut rubs.
I'll post my thoughts and market moves here.
Twitter: twitter.com/stonks_maverick
Substack: mavericksmoves.substack.com
I'll post my thoughts and market moves here.
Twitter: twitter.com/stonks_maverick
Substack: mavericksmoves.substack.com