Maverick 00:00 AM - Jul 22 2022

Market Day Ahead - July 22, 2022 - SPY - 390/400 range again; DXY took us on a ride Thursday; Friday look for QQQ weakness for puts entry.

What Happened Today (Thursday)
  • SPY traded 392 - 399
  • ECB came in with 0.50 rate hike as expected (by some).  This dropped the DXY as expected which spiked SPY. All right at 0830.
  • Then Lagarde started talking at 0845.  In JPow-fashion, it all suddenly went the other way.  She didn’t sound good nor was what she saying very good.  The market reacted incredibly fast.  The DXY spiked all the way back to where it was - and then some!  Amazing, but based on what I read/heard, it sounds right.
  • THen DXY just grinded on its sweet spot of 107 for most of the day; until 2pm where it dropped (not sure cause on this yet) and the SPY/market ripped up to 399 where it closed.
  • So to quote myself “I think the primary mover on Thursday will be ECB hike + DXY.  DXY down, equities up.”
  • That was about all there was, then SNAP got its wrecking ball filter out
  • Pull up that in afterhours for a big oooof moment.  Missed on everything, provided no forecast, is doing a stock buyback now?  Complete mess. 

Looking Ahead (Friday)
  • Reports: Nothing interesting.
  • Earnings: AXP, VZ, TWTR (premarket)
  • SNAP is tip of the spear of what’s coming for other non-mega tech.  I’d expect to see more big dips for the smaller/weaker companies in this earnings season.  Mega caps will take more time, but their day is coming.
  • Friday looks like a slightly red day, probably quite grindy.  TWTR in premarket isn’t going to help what SNAP started in afterhours. 
  • Let’s look at the charts ….
  • SPY levels:  380 (major) > 385 > 390 (major) > 393 > 398 > 400 (psych) > 410 (major)
  • Chart - Weekly: Neutral/Bullish - it’s still pushing on up, just don’t think it crosses cloud anytime soon.
  • Chart - Daily: Bullish.  Found direction.  Lots of room on RSI/MACD to keep going to 410.
  • Chart - 4h: Neutral - juuuust shy of overbought.
  • Chart - 1h: Bearish - same.
  • Chart - 30m: Bearish - same.
  • Keep your eyes on the DXY - again - on Friday - it’s moving quite a lot at the moment between 106/108.  Every little movement by it whipsaws the QQQ around.
  • Reminder: Super Bowl of earnings season + FOMC is next week, buckle up. ⚠️

SPY Trading Plans (Friday)
  • Scenario 1: If we open at/above 400, look to enter puts for an overbought pullback for 3-4 points.
  • Scenario 2: If we open anywhere between 392-397, I’ll be on sidelines.  I’d enter calls at 390.
  • Friday is tough to call right now.  There’s conflicting indicators all over the place.  If I do anything, it’ll be small size.

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Comments

Maverick - 1 year ago
I still think we need a pullback before FOMC.  If we consolidate in 390/400 ahead of FOMC, earnings next week don't move market too much, I think we'll go big to the upside.  At least for a little while.

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Created By: Maverick
Created: Feb 8, 2021
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I trade SPY, QQQ, and specific story sectors using technical analysis and gut rubs.

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