• SPY traded 393 to 396.50
• 🏆went to Scenario 1: “If we open below 395, puts to 393/390.  Tough trade.” - it took all day in the chop box, but it played out.  Tough trade, like I said.
• I entered SPX puts about 5 minutes after the open and closed them out on the first 394 drop.  I was done for the day after and happy with result.
• WMT issued a warning ahead of its Aug 16 ER: “Walmart cuts profit outlook as inflation forces shoppers to spend more on necessities”
• WMT fell 9% and took several others with it: TGT, AMZN, etc.
• Reminder that this is why you don’t hold overnight.  There was a big rally right at the close (almost +3 to bring it flat), then WMT came out of nowhere in afterhours.  Careful, there will be more.  Traps everywhere.
• It was otherwise chop with bias to downside.
• Good news? Monday is over!
• Bad news? This was the easy day this week.

• Reports: Consumer Confidence Index & New Home Sales @ 10am 
  • This may print a low, but I think pace of drop will start slowing - but not stopping 
  • New Home Sales are going to be a weak print.
  • I think we’ll see a drop at 10am on these reports
•  Earnings: Major Dow components PM (including KO, MCD, etc), MSFT, GOOG, V in AH 
  • The morning is about consumers, consumers, consumers; afternoon is hoping tech holds market on its shoulders.
  • Expecting bearish movement after 10am - but be on the ready for a big run end of day heading into these two tech earnings after hours.
  • I think MSFT strikes a bearish tone/outlook, but delivers the goods this quarter.  GOOG I’d guess doesn’t fare so well.
• SNAP warned us last week.  WMT warning us this week.  Who’s next? Can this support at 393 hold?
• Let’s look at the charts - but again - FUNDAMENTAL events are happening all week.  Charts aren’t as relevant this week. 
  • SPY levels:  380 (major) > 385 > 390 (major) > 393 > 398 > 400 (psych) > 410 (major)
  • Chart - Weekly: Neutral/Bullish - it’s still pushing on up, just don’t think it crosses cloud anytime soon.
  • Chart - Daily: Neutral/Bullish.  RSI has room to go up.  Looks like a few more days of consolidatin/up then it’s coming back down.
  • Chart - 4h: Neutral- almost hit overbought today, but eased up - if Daily chart plays out, we’ll se overbought again
  • Chart - 1h: Neutral
  • Chart - 30m: Neutral/Bullish - has room to go if there’s fundamentals pushing it
• All the technicals say it’s just waiting on more news to give it a direction.  Mixed so far, hence the consolidation pattern.
• Reminder: FOMC is on Wednesday at 2pm & 2:30pm speech. ⚠️

• Scenario 1: If we open below 395, puts to 393/390.  It could go lower if 10am report is bad bad.  Careful of afternoon rally for tech.
• Scenario 2: If we open above 397, calls to 400.  Pullback to 395/397 then high of day close on tech enthusiasm.
• I am unlikely to trade on Tuesday, but as you can guess, I lean Scenario 1. Good luck out there (and don’t hold overnight, you degens)