• SPY traded 412 to 417.60
• We nailed it on the scenarios: “Scenario 1: If we gap to 416, taking puts down to 412/410.” 🏆
• I didn’t do it perfectly, but good enough.  I exited about 30 min too early is all (didn’t see the 412 touch..)
• House marketing weakening. No surprise.
• Nothing else happened today.
• It’s just calm before the Wednesday storm of CPI.

• SPY levels:  390 (major), 396, 405, 416, 420
• Chart - Weekly: Neutral/Bullish - I remain impressed by the weekly.  It’s strong for the bulls.
• Chart - Daily: Bearish -  pullback started today we discussed yesterday.
• Chart - 4h: Bearish - near enough to overbought, but worked a little out today.  This is the main one I’m focused on.
• Chart - 1h: Neutral - consolidation.

• I’m expecting mostly chop and maybe some de-risking / profit taking ahead of CPI on Wednesday
• That said, it could go the other way, too - I’m sure I’m not the only one thinking we’re going to get a cool CPI headline number.  It’s just a matter of what the core is.  I’ll speculate on what I think happens in hot/cool scenarios tomorrow.
• I will NOT be holding anything overnight on Tuesday.  That’s gambling, don’t do that.
• Despite what could be a big rally coming up if the CPI is cool, I remain - overall - still bearish until EOY.
• 4hr chart (my preferred one) says we’re pulling back further on Tuesday

• Scenario 1: If we gap to 415/416, taking puts down to 412/410.
• Scenario 2: If we open below 413, puts to 410.  Then stay out of the way - CPI optimism is lurking…
• I can only justify puts right now.  Calls are off the table right now with these RSI/MACD conditions on 4h chart
• Similar strategy to Monday, but reduced risk on Scenario 2
• It’s very possible that we open flat at 413/414 and there’s no trade (for me)