• Scenario 1: If we gap to 415/416 on good CPI data (cool), give it a few minutes to dance at the open, then calls for a few points, max 420.  Don’t try to flip over to puts - dangerous game.
• Scenario 2: If we open below 409 on bad CPI (hot), puts down to 405/400 (max).
• Scenario 3: If we open flat with ‘as expected’ CPI data, I will stay away.  It'll be confused.
• Scenario 2 has the most profit potential.
• I think Scenario 1 is most likely to happen.
• I consider Scenario 3 very unlikely.

• SPY was just chop between 410 and 412.75
• 🏆 “Scenario 2: If we open below 413, puts to 410.  Then stay out of the way - CPI optimism is lurking…”
• Nailed it again! (If only I executed as well….). There wasn’t much meat on the bone today.
• Coinbase missed big in afterhours - no surprise.  Roblox missed.
• Nothing else really happened today.  As expected, just calm before the Wednesday CPI storm.

• SPY levels:  390 (major), 396, 405, 416, 420
• Chart - Weekly: Neutral/Bullish - it’s all up to CPI to set this trend.
• Chart - Daily: Bearish -  pullback started and now in progress.
• Chart - 4h: Bearish - just out of overbought; could come down a long ways on bad CPI
• Chart - 1h: Neutral - consolidation.

• This is the moment we’ve been waiting for: CPI data @ 0830
• I did not hold overnight, as planned.  So I’m ready to rock and roll, whichever way it goes tomorrow.
• It simply comes down to how the data shakes out on headline and core.
• I expect HEADLINE to be down against last month.  Not sure about ‘expectations’ but because it’s down (due to oil), they will have reason to talk about peak inflation.
• The CORE number is the tricky one.  It could easily do the opposite of the headline and keep marching forward.  This will be the one that matters 15 min after the open and will set the course of the day.
• If CORE comes in hot/high, we’re going down.
• If CORE comes in as expected - slightly down?
• If CORE comes in cool - we’re on the way to 420
• The technicals lean bearish, but it really could go either way - fortunately it comes out at 0830 so there’s an hour to decide what your move is….