• Scenario 1: We open above 421, calls to 425 (max) if you’re feeling frisky.
• Scenario 2: If we open below 418 on bad PPI, then puts to 416.
• I really don’t feel strongly about either scenario, but think Scenario 1 is most likely.
• I want a pullback, but just don’t see it on Thursday right now.  I’d actually like to see us go even harder into overbought, then have a nice ‘pay your technical taxes’ day on Friday to close the week out.

• SPY traded pretty tightly between 417 and 420
• We gapped up so hard on CPI data that it spent the day consolidating up in the stars
• 🏆 “Scenario 1: If we gap to 415/416 on good CPI data (cool), give it a few minutes to dance at the open, then calls for a few points, max 420.  Don’t try to flip over to puts - dangerous game.”
• Samosa called it even better in his Preview - stonks.chat/group/9/posts/582
• The market loved the CPI data.  It was cool coolish on headline & core, so that’s all it needed to spread ‘peak inflation’ narrative all over the place - and that’s what happened.
• That’s all the mattered today.  

• SPY levels (updated):  405, 416, 420, 425
• Chart - Weekly: Neutral/Bullish - so impressed by this one.  It’s been speaking to us for weeks now saying bulls were taking it….still room to go, too.
• Chart - Daily: Neutral - this one is reaching the top of the RSI, so a pullback is coming - but might not be quite yet.
• Chart - 4h: Neutral/Bearish - back into overbought we go.  Same, pullback is coming soon - but it won’t be too big with this CPI data now
• Chart - 1h: Neutral - consolidation.

• CPI data gave the bulls something to run with, for sure.  How long will it last?
• Inflation hasn’t gone away.  It’s just slowed down for a month.
• There’s plenty of people that think oil prices haven’t peaked yet - and if they take off again - it’ll wreck that CPI again.  I’d say I’m in that camp.
• The Fed isn’t going to slow down with just one CPI that’s better than expectations. We’re still way above 8% (and they know that number isn’t real, much higher)
• I know I sound bearish on what’s a very green day and what seems like positive news on the inflation front, but I need to get into the details on it (this weekend)
• We’re talking about tomorrow, though - so let’s do that.
• Consolidation with a lean to the upside is all I see for Thursday.  The bears only have some overbought conditions to lean on.  Bulls have the narrative.
• I’m having a hard time making a case for either side for more than a few points, so I doubt I’ll do much on Thursday.
• I’m going to need to spend the weekend doing some research
• We’ve got PPI data on Thursday morning @ 0830