Market Day Ahead - August 11, 2022 - SPY - 416/425 range; CPI gave us moon shoes; consolidation to upside on Thursday
SPY | SPX Trading Plans (Thursday)
- Scenario 1: We open above 421, calls to 425 (max) if you’re feeling frisky.
- Scenario 2: If we open below 418 on bad PPI, then puts to 416.
- I really don’t feel strongly about either scenario, but think Scenario 1 is most likely.
- I want a pullback, but just don’t see it on Thursday right now. I’d actually like to see us go even harder into overbought, then have a nice ‘pay your technical taxes’ day on Friday to close the week out.
Review & Analysis…..
What Happened Today (Wednesday)
- SPY traded pretty tightly between 417 and 420
- We gapped up so hard on CPI data that it spent the day consolidating up in the stars
- 🏆 “Scenario 1: If we gap to 415/416 on good CPI data (cool), give it a few minutes to dance at the open, then calls for a few points, max 420. Don’t try to flip over to puts - dangerous game.”
- Samosa called it even better in his Preview - stonks.chat/group/9/posts/582
- The market loved the CPI data. It was cool coolish on headline & core, so that’s all it needed to spread ‘peak inflation’ narrative all over the place - and that’s what happened.
- That’s all the mattered today.
Technicals (Current)
- SPY levels (updated): 405, 416, 420, 425
- Chart - Weekly: Neutral/Bullish - so impressed by this one. It’s been speaking to us for weeks now saying bulls were taking it….still room to go, too.
- Chart - Daily: Neutral - this one is reaching the top of the RSI, so a pullback is coming - but might not be quite yet.
- Chart - 4h: Neutral/Bearish - back into overbought we go. Same, pullback is coming soon - but it won’t be too big with this CPI data now
- Chart - 1h: Neutral - consolidation.
Looking Ahead (Thursday)
- CPI data gave the bulls something to run with, for sure. How long will it last?
- Inflation hasn’t gone away. It’s just slowed down for a month.
- There’s plenty of people that think oil prices haven’t peaked yet - and if they take off again - it’ll wreck that CPI again. I’d say I’m in that camp.
- The Fed isn’t going to slow down with just one CPI that’s better than expectations. We’re still way above 8% (and they know that number isn’t real, much higher)
- I know I sound bearish on what’s a very green day and what seems like positive news on the inflation front, but I need to get into the details on it (this weekend)
- We’re talking about tomorrow, though - so let’s do that.
- Consolidation with a lean to the upside is all I see for Thursday. The bears only have some overbought conditions to lean on. Bulls have the narrative.
- I’m having a hard time making a case for either side for more than a few points, so I doubt I’ll do much on Thursday.
- I’m going to need to spend the weekend doing some research
- We’ve got PPI data on Thursday morning @ 0830
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Maverick's Moves
Created By: | Maverick |
Created: | Feb 8, 2021 |
Total Followers: | 13 |
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I trade SPY, QQQ, and specific story sectors using technical analysis and gut rubs.
I'll post my thoughts and market moves here.
Twitter: twitter.com/stonks_maverick
Substack: mavericksmoves.substack.com
I'll post my thoughts and market moves here.
Twitter: twitter.com/stonks_maverick
Substack: mavericksmoves.substack.com