• Scenario 1: We open over 430, calls to 432.  Be quick….that’s where the 200MA resistance is at.  Don’t hold through 2pm minutes release.
• Scenario 2: We open under 427, puts to 424.  I already have mine, so I’d sell - happily.
• Both sides of this are a dangerous game - bulls are in charge, but good GRIEF the technicals are overbought.  A negative spark will bring it down quick due to low volume.

• SPY traded between 427 and 432
• Neither scenario played out - which was fine, again.
• I am still holding those puts and added another one to the pile today @ 430.  This is purely a technical trade.  The market has every reason to bullish AF right now.
• WMT beat expectations; HD sorta did.  Not real market moving news in the end.
• I didn’t catch anything else interesting - it’s a really quiet week, which is why we’re seeing low volume bull move.

• SPY levels:  405, 416, 420, 429.50, 437
• Chart - Weekly: Bullish - this one suggests the Hot Girl Summer Rally still has more to go. (Same as Sunday)
• Chart - Daily: Bearish - overbought.  Pullback or consolidation incoming. (Same)
• Chart - 4h: Bearish - painfully overbought. Pullback or consolidation incoming. (Same, even more painful to look at.)
• Chart - 1h: Neutral - the chart is out of overbought, but still pushing up.

• Tonight I watched JPow’s press conference from July 27.  It’s no wonder the market has rallied and continues to defy all technicals.  I made a critical error in not watching this despite my offline time.  Cost me 40 points of easy money on SPY.  
• Now we’re in way overbought conditions, so we may get a technical pullback, but I think we continue raging on upwards after it pays its taxes (which I don’t think will be much, unfortunately)
• After it does that, it’s all about the weekly chart, which I’ll post again.  How is this not COVID bounce all over again?  Sure, you don’t have QE, but the amount of cash on the sidelines is massive.  It’s starting to flow in, clearly on peak inflation and what is likely to be end to rate hikes not far off.
• I do think there will be an inflection point where we start pulling back hard in Q4 due to weak earnings/demand, but that’s not right now.
• Wednesday we have UK CPI @ 2am EST; Retails Sales @ 0830.
• Then we have Fed Minutes release at 2pm.  This is NOT a new rate hike, but just the minutes from July meeting.  Unlikely to see anything earth shattering, but it’s possible. 
• Let’s hope for a technical pullback sparked by…..anything.  Give me 7-10 points….
• I want to see 410, then I’m loading the hell up on calls for September.