• Scenario 1: We open over 428, calls to 430 (max).  There would need to be some news to push it.
• Scenario 2: We open under 425.50, puts to 422/420. Purely technical if it happens.  Don’t mess with 420 though.
• I see very limited upside and a potential party on the downside.  If neither happens, that’s absolutely fine by me.

• SPY traded between 424.50 and 429.50
• 🏆 “Scenario 2: We open under 427, puts to 424.  I already have mine, so I’d sell - happily.” 
• I exited my puts at 425.40-ish (11am).  If I would have stuck to my plan would have gotten much closer to nailing the bottom 45 min later, but let’s be real - I was just happy to be out of that bleeding and growing puts position with a profit.
• Premarket: TGT whiffed; UK inflation still going (DXY spiked); these took the SPY down from 430 to 426 by the open.
• Then we just chop boxed with a bias to downside (no surprise with technicals so overbought) - until 2pm FOMC minutes were released.
• I did a little gamble on calls just before the release and that paid off (sold the first candle on the pop).  Don’t do this at home, pure gambling.  It powered on to almost 430, then gave it all up to return to exactly where it was at 2pm (before announcement) - 427
• While the minutes didn’t reveal anything earth shattering, I’d say they were bullish overall (for market)

• SPY levels:  405, 416, 420, 429.50, 437
• Chart - Weekly: Neutral/Bearish - how interesting!  We’ve got a turn/pause in the weekly.  MACD looking extended.  RSI in nowhere zone.
• Chart - Daily: Bearish - overbought.  Pullback may have started today - consolidation at a minimum.
• Chart - 4h: Bearish - sam as Daily, really.
• Chart - 1h: Neutral - we’re out of overbought, but it could go either way from here.  Look to 4HR/D.

• JPow is still on my mind.  As as the current technicals.  Rest of the week will continue to be low volume.  I think the bulls are going to take a breather on Thursday and the bears will poke it a bit to see how much fight its got.  I don’t see any big drop tomorrow because there’s no catalyst, unless they want to sort these technicals out.  We’ll see.  Keep you eyes on the levels.
• I still think we’re looking at next week for a big (20+) move downward, though today could easily be the top - but I’m not confident in that.
• I don’t really see anything on the calendar that will move the market.  Maybe the two Fed people at 1:20pm and 1:45pm?
• Note: Next week is going to be a bit more interesting.  We’ll look at the calendar on Sunday.