Maverick 23:28 PM - Aug 21 2022

Week Ahead: August 22, 2022 - SPY 410/430 range; DXY is key all week; JPow + PCE on Friday 🌶

Economic Calendar #2: https://stonks.chat/feed/catalysts 

  • Monday: Nothing.
  • Tuesday:  Not much, PMI at 9:45am
  • Wednesday: Nothing.
  • Thursday: Nothing exciting.
  • Friday: PCE @ 8:30am (very important); UMich Sentiment @ 10am; JPow speaks from Jackson Hole @ 10am EST 🌶

Thoughts - General:
  • SPY kept marching up last week, topping out at 432 and then (finally) started pulling back - closing at 422 on Friday.   Impressive, SPY, well done 👏
  • I’m looking for another 10 points of a dip to add to Friday’s 6 (total of 20 off the high - ie 410/412)
  • Tuesday looks red - PMI data will released; Europe is in bad shape and UK may get to 15% on inflation in 2023 (probably where US is, in reality)
  • DXY - should keep inching up on the back of US rate hikes and Europe/elsewhere getting worse
  • I don’t see anything else until Friday when the real party starts. 🎉
  • PCE is out on Friday morning at 0830am - very important to Fed.  The market will have one hour to react before JPow speaks, so the VIX should make for some expensive options for 30-45minutes.
  • JPow will speak at 10am EST from Jackson Hole where he and his banker buddies are having their annual meetup.
  • He’s known to be more hawkish in the wild.   He could move the market down quickly if he pushes back that inflation isn’t peaked yet and he’s going to keep bringing the heat to the tune of 0.75% or higher.
  • On the flip side, if he has folks thinking it’ll be 0.50% in September and we will just go down from there on hikes, then put on your moon shoes.  He’ll send it.
  • It could go either way because the others seem to be a bit more hawkish than him after the July meeting came across.
  • This is why you can’t hold anything overnight that’s one-sided.  I’ll do an overnight straddle (Friday 0DTEs) on Thursday at the close - market will have been waiting all week for a reason to go big in either direction - so they will.
  • Overall?  I’d guess Monday is pretty flat.  Tuesday is down.  Wednesday flat/down.  Thursday flat/down.  Friday very green.
  • The underlying economy is getting worse and I think we’re in the final hoorah stage of this cycle.  I expect us to push higher, maybe even testing all time SPY high, but then…..it’s coming way, way down and setting new lows.  I wanted to post this chart over weekend, but I didn’t get around to.  I will…


Thoughts - Technical:
  • SPY levels (no change from last week):  405, 416, 420, 429.50, 437
  • Chart - Weekly: Bearish/Neutral - looks like a small pullback in play before it pushes higher.
  • Chart - Daily: Bearish - Pullback in progress (that I was waiting for lat week…)
  • Chart - 4h: Bearish - Same
  • Chart - 1h: Neutral/Bullish - Hmm, this one could pull up hard if it has a spark.

Trading Plan (Monday):
  • It’s getting a bit tough to do daytrades because the range is so muted and volume so light.  Swings are probably the way to go right now, so I’ll do both - but with higher confidence in the Swings.
  • Daytrade Scenario 1: If we open below 420, give it 15 min, then calls back to 420+.
  • Daytrade Scenario 2: If we open above 423, puts to 420.
  • Swing Scenario 1: Puts at 423-425 Monday.  Hold until Wednesday/Thursday.  Get the hell out of the way before Friday.
  • Swing Scenario 2: Take the week off.  Do a straddle on Thursday before the close.  Sell after PCE & JPow send it one way.

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Maverick's Moves

Created By: Maverick
Created: Feb 8, 2021
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I trade SPY, QQQ, and specific story sectors using technical analysis and gut rubs.

I'll post my thoughts and market moves here.

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