• Scenario 1: If we open  under 412, give it 10 min to hold the line, then calls to 415.25
• Scenario 2: If we open near 416 on no news, puts are on the table back to 414/412.
• Note: I’m holding SPX calls (unintentionally) currently.
• Keep this one in your pocket from Sunday: Swing Scenario 2: Take the week off.  Do a straddle on Thursday before the close.  Sell after PCE & JPow send it one way.

• SPY traded between 412 and 417
• From Sunday’s Week Ahead: “i’m looking for another 10 points of a dip to add to Friday’s 6 (total of 20 off the high - ie 410/412)”
• Did I play that? Nope.  I played my Scenario 1 which was wrong (it never bounced back up).  Stood in front of a bear I spent all last week warning was coming.
• The drop in premarket was like bees to honey on the 30m/1hr.   It worked out all those overbought conditions on all the charts and went wildly oversold on the 30/1.
• I just kept buying calls all the way down, lowest buy was around 413 on SPY.  My break even  on SPX is 4165 (~415.85 SPY)
• I’ll enjoy my overnight Gucci bags.  I hope I’m not holding these all week, because I’ve got very clear trade I want to make on Thursday/Friday.
• AMC & APE - I have no words for that mess.
• DXY crossed 109 🌶
• Today looked primarily technical with a little bit of oil & Ukraine news mixed in there.

• SPY levels:  405, 410, 416, 420
• Chart - Weekly: Bearish/Neutral - looks like a small pullback in play before it pushes higher.
• Chart - Daily: Bearish - Pullback in progress as expected last week
• Chart - 4h: Bearish/Neutral - it worked out all those overbought conditions out today; probably more to go on Tuesday though before it levels out
• Chart - 1h: Neutral/Bullish - this got slammed hard into oversold territory - but see chart below.

• We’re down around 15 points in two sessions (Friday & Monday).  
• We got the 20 points total off the high I was looking for - a day early (costly day early for me).  Right on the head, too, at 412.  Now what….
• PMI data premarket (International) + 0945 (US)
• If the DXY cools because of this, it’ll trigger a little bounce.  If it pushes on to 110, we’re going to feel quite a bit more SPY pain.
• DXY is right at its recent highs where it ran into resistance
• I was suckered in on the 30m/1hr chart for calls, but in looking back to June, that might be a problem.  It looks exactly the same, and we just kept pushing down, then went sideways for a while.  It took 2 months to claw it back.  Careful…
• We’re strolling into Friday with PCE data & JPow doing a mini-talk, though - so you’ve got those wildcards/possible bullish catalysts.
• I’d guess we’ve paid most of our technical taxes that were overdue; rest of week is probably chop with a tiny bias to upside.
• We’re probably stuck in 412-416 for a couple days.