Market Day Ahead - August 26, 2022 - SPY - 410/430; PCE + JPow; LET’S DO THIS!
SPY | SPX Trading Plans (Friday)
- I am just going to write based on my position.
- Scenario 1: If PCE makes the market move huge at the open (either direction), I’ll close the strangle and probably do another before JPow at 10am.
- Scenario 2: If PCE doesn’t make the market move much/enough, I’ll hold my position until JPow.
- The worst case scenario for me is the market to do nothing from 419. That would fry my ass. I need 5 points in either direction to make this work.
- After JPow is done speaking, I’ll close it, no matter what.
- Then I’m done for the week.
Review & Analysis…..
What Happened Today (Thursday)
- Almost nothing happened this week after Monday, which was basically expected. So, I didn’t do any trades or daily updates. Just held on to my Monday position I got stuck in.
- Today SPY traded in a nice range of 414 to 419.50
- I exited my Monday SPX call position when SPY was around 416.75 this morning. Took a 10% loss, but those bags were getting HEAVY, so 10% hit looked great. I didn’t see that 419 rally coming, but that would have put me at a profit. Doh!
- I had and funny & unexpected - but profitable - situation happen. The only trade I wanted to do all week was an option strangle (or straddle) for Friday. Well, I decided to setup the strangle at 3:20pm - that I was intending to hold overnight into PCE & JPOW. Now if you look at the chart, you’ll see that’s moments before the SPY exploded upwards from 417.
- So what happened is the call side went up by about 50% and the puts declined by about 35%. It was enough profit not to ignore and would have put me lopsided going into tomorrow (not the point of a strangle). So I locked in the profit and setup a new strangle higher up (at 420) and was pretty balanced.
- NVDA missed last night.
- Pretty much all the news is bad out there. Which is good?
Technicals (Latest)
- SPY levels: 405, 410, 416, 420
- Chart - Weekly: Neutral - waiting for direction.
- Chart - Daily: Neutral/Bullish - waiting for direction, but leaning bullish.
- Chart - 4h: Bullish: Party time.
- Chart - 1h: Bullish: Big move inbound.
Looking Ahead (Friday)
- It’s the day we’ve all been waiting for: PCE (8:30am) + JPow (10am)
- I can’t imagine at least one of those two not giving us a big move (5+).
- If CPI was a guide to PCE, then we’re going to see some cooling in PCE.
- JPow is the wild card. I always think he’s going to be a hawk in the wild. If so, he’s going to have a ‘I’m bringing the heat, you idiots, how many times do I have to tell you?’ tone. If not, and he even winks at 0.5% for September, we’ll be at 425/430.
- Technicals are wound up for a big move on Friday, really, in either direction.
- If I’m guessing, I’d say Friday is very green. If it’s not, then they set a nasty bull trap at the close on Thursday!
- Good luck, I’m hoping it’s going to be a fun morning and a steak lunch.
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Comments
Maverick - 1 year ago
Friday recap: JPow let his inner hawk soar and scared the shit out of the market. I was setup perfectly with my options strangle, but tinkered with it about 20 min before the main event. That was very costly. I would have made ~5x what I did, had I done...nothing.
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Maverick's Moves
| Created By: | Maverick |
| Created: | Feb 8, 2021 |
| Total Followers: | 13 |
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I trade SPY, QQQ, and specific story sectors using technical analysis and gut rubs.
I'll post my thoughts and market moves here.
Twitter: twitter.com/stonks_maverick
Substack: mavericksmoves.substack.com
I'll post my thoughts and market moves here.
Twitter: twitter.com/stonks_maverick
Substack: mavericksmoves.substack.com