Maverick 23:01 PM - Aug 29 2022

Stock Market Day Ahead - August 30, 2022 - SPY - 400/407; busy Tuesday economic calendar; Fed Hawks continue… 🦅

SPY | SPX Trading Plans (Tuesday)
  • Almost a repeat of yesterday.  Will execute this after I exit these calls
  • Swing - Buy:  I’ll be looking for any pop (407-410) to buy some late September puts and holding them.
  • Swing - Sell: If I get them, I’ll be looking at 396 as exit level.

Review & Analysis…..

What Happened Today (Monday)
  • SPY traded in a nice range of 401.20 to 405.84
  • My only scenario was almost spot on “Swing - Buy:  I’ll be looking for any pop (405+) to buy some late September puts and holding them.” 🏆
  • Instead of sticking to the plan, I deviated.  🤡 I picked up puts at 402.50 to 405.  Cut those loose around 404 and flipped to calls.  So dumb.  Don’t change your plan middle of the trading day due to PRICE ACTION - only if you’ve got a GOOD reason (ie JPow or some other meteorite)
  • Waiting to buy puts at 405 and holding them even to just the close would have paid off nicely for the day.
  • Anyway, holding a bag of calls at the moment, but not sweating it quite yet.  I did buy shorter strike date than usual (Aug 9) because I wasn’t planning to be in long.  I’ll be out by Thursday or roll them.
  • I do need to stick to the plans I make, it’s really pissing me off, frankly.
  • I took a punt on BBBY calls for fun.  They have an investor update on Wednesday morning premarket.  I’ll be out on Tuesday for sure. 🦍
  • Fed Brainard didn’t do what I was expecting at 2:15pm - it was some other announcement about Fed payment system 🤷‍♀️
  • Then Fed Kashkari, who wasn’t on any calendar that I saw, came in off the top rope and danced on the grave of the bulls.  
  • Weird day.

Technicals (Latest)
  • SPY levels:  396, 400, 405, 410
  • Chart - Weekly: Bearish - important crossing of the Ripster Clouds happened as expected. This is big break in trend to the downside.
  • Chart - Daily: Bearish - Pullback continues.  Plenty of room to go down.
  • Chart - 4h: Bearish - Getting close to oversold, so need to be mindful, but this one can press hard into oversold as it’s done many times before.

Looking Ahead (Tuesday)
  • There’s a busier-than-normal Tuesday agenda: Fed Barkin @ 8am; JOLTS (jobs data) and consumer confidence @ 10am EST; Fed Williams @ 11am
  • The market has taken quite a beating in the last few days.  While I’m long-term bearish, I expect Tue-Thu be lower volume, which normally favors the bulls and I think that will be the case starting around 12pm on Tuesday.
  • I’ll exit my BBBY calls on Tuesday - hopefully for some dinner money.
  • I’ll be looking to exit my calls on SPX around SPY 407/408 - expecting we’ll see that by Wednesday EOD on a relief rally
  • This weekly chart is significant for general trend (non-intraday)

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Maverick's Moves

Created By: Maverick
Created: Feb 8, 2021
Total Followers: 13
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I trade SPY, QQQ, and specific story sectors using technical analysis and gut rubs.

I'll post my thoughts and market moves here.

Twitter: twitter.com/stonks_maverick
Substack: mavericksmoves.substack.com
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