• Tuesday:  Nothing.
• Wednesday: Brainard @ 12:35pm
• Thursday: Jobless claims @ 0830am; JPow @ 9:10am (don’t expect much here); ECB meeting (50/75bps hike)
• Friday: Nothing.

• I’ve spent this evening looking at some charts.  In particular, a 15 year, monthly chart (see previous post), and the one you’ll see at the bottom - Weekly.
• Both say the same thing - the trend is down and it has all the storms brewing to keep it that way for the next 6-9 months.
• On that basis, I’m going to change up my strategy a bit.  I’m going to slowly build up a long-term SPX puts position and will try hard not to cut it loose.  If I do, I’ll re-enter.  I’ll be collecting up: SPX 3800p (10/31), 3750p (11/30), 3700p (12/30).
• We’ll call that my ‘core’ position, since that’s where I see the market going ‘long-term’
• I’ll carry on doing swings/trades off lines and events as normal with smaller size (by comparison).
• So, for this week? I think the bulls will have this week if they can round up some buyers.  There’s really nothing on the agenda this week and will be low volume all week.  The technicals (see below) are calling for a bounce very soon (early as Tuesday).  Stick to the levels though.  This won’t be a huge bounce without a surprise fundamental event.
• There are some wildcards out there:  Oil & Russia; JPow on Thursday (likely nothing - but you never know with him); DXY  (cracked 110 today…)
• The action is next week.
• REMINDER: CPI is next Wednesday - September 14.
• REMINDER: FOMC is September 21.  It seems like a lock we’ll get another 0.75% now, unless a jobs report of the final CPI shock and awes.

• SPY levels (no change from last week):  385, 390, 396, 400, 405, 410
• Chart - Weekly: Bearish - important crossing of the Ripster Clouds happened. New trend to the downside started early last week.
• Chart - Daily: Neutral - we’re getting close to a bottom on RSI - so bounce is coming up - probably over 400.
• Chart - 4h: Neutral/bullish - we’re a full week into oversold territory - but like I warned last SUnday - the 4h can do that.  It’s not a quick bounce.  However, we’re been oversold for a while now - so much like the Daily - it’s coming soon.

• I’ll be looking to nibble on long-term puts at 400+
• I held a Sept 12 SPX 3950 call over weekend for fun.  Based on technicals above, it might be worth just holding it for 24-48 hours.
• The move is calls a week out, if there’s any move at all.