Stock Market Day Ahead - September 13, 2022 - SPY - 400/420 range; CPI day; buckle up!
What Happened Today (Monday)
- SPY traded 408.50 to 412
- It was a low volume and no news Monday.
- We just knocked around in a 4 point range with traders making final moves for tomorrow’s CPI data
- I ditched my large puts position for a loss, just owned up to the fact I had a terrible entry based on bad chart reading. There’s too high a chance this will rip up to 420. I will re-enter puts after CPI at either 425 or 400. 400 is confirmation. 420+ would just be too tempting ahead of JPow next week.
- I entered a strange of decent size for tomorrow: 4120c / 4080p exp 9/13. I need SPY to move at least 5 points from 411 to make this work (either direction). Anything more than that is a tidy profit.
Technicals (Latest)
- SPY levels: 390, 396, 400, 405, 410, 416, 420
- Chart - Weekly: Bullish - tons of room to go up if CPI comes in positive (cool/cool)
- Chart - Daily: Bullish - same as weekly.
- Chart - 4h: Bullish - plenty of room to go up if CPI hits.
Looking Ahead (Tuesday)
- It should be obvious by now, but Tuesday is all about CPI. It’s the only thing that matters - and we get it premarket at 0830.
- The technicals are either a wonderfully orchestrated bull trap OR we’re going to explode on cool data OR this 20 point run has priced in cool CPI data. I am not sure which.
- It would be a big surprise if we came in hot/hot. The market is very much expecting headline to come down.
- If we get a mixed report - cool topline, warm/sticky core - there could be little movement due to 20 point run.
- If we get hot/hot, we’re going to crater to 400 or lower.
- If we get cool/cool, we’re going to 420.
SPY | SPX Trading Plans (Tuesday)
- I’ll be exiting my options strangle at the open, unless I think the market responded incorrectly to the data - I’ll need to read it quickly.
- My worst case situation (and it would indeed be nasty) is if we open flat. I need +/- 5 to be a happy boy.
- After this, I’ll be looking to enter those puts again above 420 or at 400 - and holding up to JPow, at least.
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Maverick's Moves
Created By: | Maverick |
Created: | Feb 8, 2021 |
Total Followers: | 13 |
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I trade SPY, QQQ, and specific story sectors using technical analysis and gut rubs.
I'll post my thoughts and market moves here.
Twitter: twitter.com/stonks_maverick
Substack: mavericksmoves.substack.com
I'll post my thoughts and market moves here.
Twitter: twitter.com/stonks_maverick
Substack: mavericksmoves.substack.com