Maverick 23:40 PM - Sep 12 2022

Stock Market Day Ahead - September 13, 2022 - SPY - 400/420 range; CPI day; buckle up!

What Happened Today (Monday)
  • SPY traded 408.50 to 412
  • It was a low volume and no news Monday.
  • We just knocked around in a 4 point range with traders making final moves for tomorrow’s CPI data
  • I ditched my large puts position for a loss, just owned up to the fact I had a terrible entry based on bad chart reading.   There’s too high a chance this will rip up to 420.  I will re-enter puts after CPI at either 425 or 400.  400 is confirmation.  420+ would just be too tempting ahead of JPow next week.
  • I entered a strange of decent size for tomorrow: 4120c / 4080p exp 9/13.  I need SPY to move at least 5 points from 411 to make this work (either direction).  Anything more than that is a tidy profit.

Technicals (Latest)
  • SPY levels:  390, 396, 400, 405, 410, 416, 420
  • Chart - Weekly: Bullish - tons of room to go up if CPI comes in positive (cool/cool)
  • Chart - Daily: Bullish - same as weekly.
  • Chart - 4h: Bullish -  plenty of room to go up if CPI hits. 

Looking Ahead (Tuesday)
  • It should be obvious by now, but Tuesday is all about CPI.  It’s the only thing that matters - and we get it premarket at 0830.
  • The technicals are either a wonderfully orchestrated bull trap OR we’re going to explode on cool data OR this 20 point run has priced in cool CPI data.  I am not sure which.
  • It would be a big surprise if we came in hot/hot.  The market is very much expecting headline to come down.
  • If we get a mixed report - cool topline, warm/sticky core - there could be little movement due to 20 point run.
  • If we get hot/hot, we’re going to crater to 400 or lower.
  • If we get cool/cool, we’re going to 420.

SPY | SPX Trading Plans (Tuesday)
  • I’ll be exiting my options strangle at the open, unless I think the market responded incorrectly to the data - I’ll need to read it quickly.
  • My worst case situation (and it would indeed be nasty) is if we open flat.  I need +/- 5 to be a happy boy.
  • After this, I’ll be looking to enter those puts again above 420 or at 400 - and holding up to JPow, at least.  
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Maverick's Moves

Created By: Maverick
Created: Feb 8, 2021
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I trade SPY, QQQ, and specific story sectors using technical analysis and gut rubs.

I'll post my thoughts and market moves here.

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