• SPY traded 389 to 396
• Sorry about yesterday.  I was just tired and there was no change in my plans - buy SPX puts at 395+ SPY.  I did that yesterday/today.
• Yesterday: Was at a tidy profit, then re-entered about 30 min before the close and vaporized all of it.  Closed flat. Greedy pig.
• Thursday:  Exited my short-term (September) puts and rolled them into long-term (November).
• I was expecting a 390 break by JPow  Day - but not today.  I expected 392 to hold.  It’s just confirmation of how truly weak it is right now, which pretty much everybody noticed yesterday when we only recovered 1.50 after being down 18.
• I’m a little puzzled at the action on the VIX, just seems off. DXY and TNX holding the line.
• We had several bits of news, none of it good for the market.  Still strong jobs and consumer.

• SPY levels:  373, 380, 385, 390, 396
• Chart - Weekly: Bearish - as I said previously, despite the cross to bullish last week, these are going to cross again and turn bearish - delayed.
• Chart - Daily: Bearish - Fundamental-driven reversal continues, plenty of room to go down.
• Chart - 4h: Bearish -  same - looking like 360’s aren’t far off.

• That consumer and jobs data is a slightly lagging indicator - I think we’re getting very close to the apex of max Fed heat + the pain starting from those hikes.  There will be an upcoming moment when the tide shifts and the Fed can ease up - but it’s still not here yet and we’ll need to see more confirmation of it all breaking down.  Probably at some point after this upcoming earnings season.
• FedEx (FDX) reported earnings in after hours and tanked about 17%.  It was a big whiff and set a very negative tone for the future.  CEO is expecting a ‘worldwide recession’ - strong words (but reality)
• We’re already down 3-4 points in futures to around 386.50
• Next support levels are 385-ish and then 380.  If that gives….
• I’m going to post that monthly chart again that is marching right on to where I expect us to go by April 2023 (the trend line)
• NOTE: Friday is Options Expiration day (OpEx) for the quarter.  There will be big volume candles, especially at the close of the day.  I think the flow is mostly negative/selling stock, but we’ll see.  Careful..

• I’m only adding to my puts core position on pops to resistance levels.  The technicals don’t support a bounce and fundamentals certainly don’t.
• I’ll sell my core puts position before JPow - just to stay out of his way - and because I think it’s possible for it to be a positive event (“Whew, only 75bps!”) - then get back in and ride it into next CPI.