Maverick 21:57 PM - Sep 21 2022

Stock Market Day Ahead - September 22, 2022 - SPY - 370/377; that happened. šŸ» šŸ“‰

What Happened Today (Wednesday)
  • SPY traded 389 to 377
  • I didnā€™t let the strangle play out - I tried to ā€˜optimizeā€™ it after the 2pm announcement and that messed it all up.  Had a small loss.  That didnā€™t stop me from making what is so far the right moveā€¦.
  • I had that one SPXp that I wanted to add to - I added two more when we were over 386.  Looking very good here in afterhours - if we open anywhere near here, Iā€™m out and not messing with 373.
  • It came in at 75bps - no surprise to anybody.  The ā€˜bad newsā€™ that Samosa gets kudos for being prepared for was the projected Fed Funds Rate - they moved that up.
  • JPow was his normal magical self. While he was speaking - for the most part- we were pushing new highs of the day.  When he walked off the stage, the gates of hell started opening up.
  • He was saying bearish things, but his tone was very pleasant and made you enjoy your medicine.  He almost lured me into calls!
  • He really just confirmed what he said at JHole - and held that line - which we know how that went.  He repeated multiple times he is not stopping or dropping rate until inflation is tame.

Technicals (Latest)
  • SPY levels:  [UNSURE BELOW 373], 373, 380, 390
  • Chart - Weekly: Bearish - curling down fully in motion now - got it right that time.
  • Chart - Daily: Bearish - but I expect 373 to put up a fight - and will be oversold on chart.  If it breaks thatā€¦.
  • Chart - 4h: Bearish - itā€™s nearing oversold, but 4h loves to push through on bottom end of RSI.

Looking Ahead (Thursday)
  • Thereā€™s jobless claims at 0830 but I suspect they wonā€™t matter if weā€™re down 3-4 points in premarket/overnight.
  • I don't think Putin got the world reaction he wanted, so he's still out there as a wild card.
  • I remain bearish for the time being ā€” check the Weekly Chart again which is what Iā€™m hanging my cowboy hat on.

SPY | SPX Trading Plans (Thursday)
  • If weā€™re near/below 373, Iā€™ll be looking to exit and sit on sidelines and take a breather.  Weā€™d be oversold at that point - though I canā€™t see a reason for a bounce, only a dead cat one.  I'd just re-enter the puts on that.
  • I donā€™t see any entry trades for Thursday.

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Comments

Maverick - 1 year ago
Maverick - 1 year ago
Only thing I see messing up my exit tomorrow: BOE rate hike (DXY may pull back), dip buyers.

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Created By: Maverick
Created: Feb 8, 2021
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I trade SPY, QQQ, and specific story sectors using technical analysis and gut rubs.

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