• Fed Officials all week - check calendar for them all.
• Monday: Nothing major.
• Tuesday: JOLTS (jobs-related) at 10am EST; ECB Lagarde @ 11am EST
• Wednesday: Not much.
• Thursday: Jobless claims @ 830am
• Friday: Non-farm payrolls & unemployment rate @ 8:30am EST ⚠️ Event of Week

• I had a good week last week, ended September nicely.  I didn’t get to post updates later in the week, but the bearish trend worked out.  I didn’t hold as long as I should have - per usual, but I can’t complain.
• Event of the week is the non-form payrolls on Friday.  It’s premarket, so have yourself setup prior.  If we’re not there yet, we’re right on the edge of seeing jobs start to break down.  Rate hikes have been fierce, but impact isn’t instant.  We continue to see tech companies slowing or stopping hiring.  
• The bulls need jobs to break down to get the Fed to ease up; the bears need jobs to stay strong for Fed to keep bringing the heat.
• Core PCE came in hotter than expected on Friday. 🌶
• Oil is rallying on OPEC cuts.  This is a tough one because oil rally is bad for inflation, but the reason they are giving is reduced demand due to impending (or in progress) global recession.  It’s a vicious circle right now, but it will straighten out at some point.
• Fed Presidents will be out with the same spiel: “We can’t stop hiking rates prematurely, must remain vigilant until inflation monster is tamed.”
• I am not sure why they’re even bothering.  We know….we know…..
• Except for the Weekly chart, the intervals I follow - Daily and 4h are quite oversold.  We’re close to a breaking point (capitulation) that if we don’t get a bounce - a real one - we’re going to break down real hard.  I’m on the fence as to which is going to happen now (I expect it before EOY/upcoming earnings), but we’re at a point where it could happen.  
• I’m having a hard time with this market because while I’m very bearish (as I have been most of this year), the move down has been faster than I expected and technicals say one thing, but fundamentals say another.  I know to just buy puts way out and pack it up for winter, but that is easier said than done as a trader-cowboy staring at oversold conditions.
• I think the DXY is going to chill out this week.  I don't think TNX will.

• SPY levels:  350, 355, 358, 363, 373
• Chart - Weekly: Bearish - just carrying with the move down.  We saw this a couple weeks ago and it’s just doing its thing.  Not oversold.
• Chart - Daily: Neutral - oversold - but could keep going, easily.  Fundamentals trump TA….
• Chart - 4h: Bullish - oversold just barely - this one surprised me.  This one likes to dig in on the RSI and it has plenty of room to go.  Another 8 points easily if there’s no bull spark.

• I’ve got no position.  I missed the final breakdown on Friday and it just felt like too much (for now), so I put myself on the bench.
• I’ll be looking for a fade the rip opportunity at 360/363 using November puts.
• I won’t consider calls to even trade until Tuesday or Friday (both are jobs-related data days).