What Am I Looking Out For This Week?

• We have a lot of important economic data this week. PPI, FOMC Minutes, CPI (!), Retail Sales and the start of earnings season with big banks reporting. This is a busy busy week. 
• With the CPI data coming up on Thursday, we got a chance for the peak inflation theory to re-enter the discussion if that report comes in cooler. Not likely, but something to monitor. 
• Can SPY defend the June lows and stay above it on the week? This is the big technical item on watch for the week. 

Current Positions and Plays:

• CORE Position: SPX 3600p for 11/18 -I am still holding this position and my patience was rewarded on Friday. I am looking for us to break new lows on Monday or Tuesday, and will be fully out of the position before Wednesday or Thursday.  
• Scalps - I am getting back into scalp trading as well when the setups merit it. This means waiting until 10:30am and let my intraday Fibs have some data to work with. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)?

• We have a lot of Fed Speakers this week. Check the full calendar here: stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
• Monday: Brainard speech at 1:30pm
• Tuesday: Nothing major
• Wednesday: PPI at 8:30am (This one is interesting as it is before CPI this time)
• Wednesday: LaGarde Speech at 9:30am (This has DXY implications)
• Wednesday: FOMC Minutes at 2:00pm. I am not expecting much from this since a lot of Fed speakers have echoed what these minutes should say. 
• Thursday: CPI at 8:30am. This is the main event. Strangle play opportunity here. 
• Friday: Retail Sales Data at 8:30am
• Friday: UoM Consumer Sentiment at 10am

Earnings this Week:

• Thursday Premarket -  Delta (DAL), TSM and Blackrock (BLK)
• Friday Premarket - JPM, MS, C, WFC, 

SPY Technicals - 

• SPY Technicals - The 30 min and 1 hour are pretty much oversold. The 4 hour and Daily are neutral.  
• SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 362 is the .000 line. Bulls are clinging to this line. They have to hold onto this level otherwise it drop very quickly to 358. 
• SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 349 is the .500.
• SPY - The 200 Weekly SMA is 358. The bulls need to keep this level.

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for MONDAY for SPY:

• We don't much on the calendar on Monday so we could see a choppy day. The donwtrend from Friday could continue into Monday which could just see a slow bled day. Consolidation though seems to be what we will see. 
• If for some reason we see a flush and get oversold conditions on the 4 hour chart, I will close out my November puts and wait to re-enter a core position after the CPI report. 
• I will be waiting until 10:30am and see if I can set up some intraday Fibs and try and identify any scalps. 
• NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
• This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

• $SPY - levels 353 > 355 > 358 > 360 > 362 > 367 > 370 > 373