What Happened on Thursday?

• SPY Day Range: 348.11 - 367.51 (New 52 week Low set)
• The CPI came in slightly above forecasts and it was a hot read. The market violently reacted in premarket to the report and just stuck right at the 350 level.
• The 50% Fib line from COVID lows to All Time Highs was 349 and that held up.
• We then got a face ripping rally that was sparked by a few things, oversold conditions, short covering, major level support, and BoE pivoting. Unbelievable day. 
• Also of note, earnings so far have been great (DAL, PepsiCo) and not so doom and gloom. This is bringing optimism for the upcoming earnings season. 

Current Positions and Plays:

• I had set up a strangle heading into CPI and just fumbled my execution again. I quickly closed out the call side and rolled that amount in a hedge play that was closer to the current price. I then sold that hedge for peanuts and continued to hold my puts. My bias got me good today. Ended down over $6k when I should have had a green day. 
• I am holding calls that are for about 10 days out. I will see how tomorrow plays out and make a decision on whether to sell or hold them. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)?

• Friday: Retail Sales Data at 8:30am
• Friday: UoM Consumer Sentiment at 10am
• Friday: BoE decision on whether they really will stop QE. This has been a roller coaster ride. 

Earnings this Week:

• Friday Premarket - JPM, MS, C, WFC, 
• Next Major Tech earnings is 10/18 with TSLA. 

SPY Technicals - 

• SPY Technicals - The 30 min and 1 hour are close to overbought. 4 hour and Daily are neutral.
• SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 362 is the .000 line. Bulls continue to reclaim this level even when all hope seems to be lost. 
• SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 349 is the .500.
• SPY - The 200 Weekly SMA is 358. The bulls need to keep this level.

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for FRIDAY for SPY:

• All eyes are going to be on the DXY and TNX. If they continue to fall, the market can sustain this rally. If they go up, then the market will fall. 
• If the market continues to rally, I think we see a 380 test very soon next week. 
• If we break under 362, I think you have to assume that this rally was a one off and we are eventually headed lower. 
• NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
• This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

• $SPY - levels 350 > 353 > 355 > 358 > 360 > 362 > 367 > 370 > 373 > 376