SPY - SPDR S&P 500 08:13 AM - Oct 21 2022
by: samosa

Friday, October 21, 2022 Market Preview

What Happened on Thursday? - 

  • The market had a minor dip and then ripped up shortly after the bell to 372 area. Then Fed speaker Harker spoke about inflation and the gains quickly diminished and we closed at 365. 
  • One thing I want to point out is that the DXY and TNX were screaming that this drop was going to happen. In the morning, the DXY was down but the TNX was up. When this happens, I always have some pause and normally wait for them to be in line before I make a move. I ended up breaking that rule and costing myself a fair amount of money.  The DXY started to regain its losses after Harker's speech, once that started to gain steam, it was a signla to me to re-enter puts. That is what I did, just a bit too late as I was holding calls expecting a bounce. 
  • So in summary, keep an eye on the DXY and TNX at all times. The DXY is the king of jungle, so do not ignore this at all. I will never again make this mistake. 
  • SNAP reported earnings and they were pretty rough. SNAP dropped from 11 to under 8 in seconds. 

What Am I Looking Out For This Week?  - 

  • All eyes continue to be on the DXY and TNX. If the DXY cools, stocks will go up. I would argue that the DXY is the hardest instrument to follow and predict. So since the market is inversing the DXY, the difficulty level for swing traders just got raised to the hardest level. 

Current Positions and Plays - 

  • I completely fumbled yesterday by entering calls and holding them too long. I was extremely distracted and honestly should not have traded anything. 
  • I am currently back in my SPX core puts position. I have about 50% of my full position and will continue to look at building this position back up. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 

  • We have a few Fed Speakers this week. Check the full calendar here: stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
  • Monday to Firday: Nothing major.
  • Friday - Inflation expectations are set to come out at 12pm EST. Normally a minor report, but now anything with inflation expectations becomes extremely important. 

Earnings this Week:

earnings-october-16.jpeg 252.94 KB

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour, Daily are neutral.  
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 362 is the .000 line. Bulls keep recovering this line. This back to being major support as we are well above it again. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 349 is the .500. That .500 level is the real deal and the current YTD low. The 380 looks to be tested this week imo. 
  • SPY - The 200 Weekly SMA is 359. The bulls need to keep this level.

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for FRIDAY for SPY - 

  • With SNAP's earnings and the upcoming inflation report at noon, it is hard to even consider calls today. So I will be looking at put entries at key levels 363 or even if we get fortunate enough at 365. 
  • The next positive catalyst Bulls have is GOOGL and MSFT earnings on Tuesday in afterhours. I am very comfortable holding puts until then.  
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 355 > 357 > 360 > 362 > 367 > 370 > 373

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SPDR S&P 500 - SPY

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