What Am I Looking Out For This Week? -

All eyes on the big tech earnings this week. GOOGL, MSFT, META, AMZN, and AAPL all report within 48 hours of each other.
AAPL's earnings will be the key for a trend setter moving forward. If AAPL reports stellar earnings, we got a rally that could last a few weeks until the CPI report on 11/10. If the earnings are terrible, could trigger a major sell off as the biggest company is showing cracks and gives us a hint that a major recession is already brewing. If AAPL comes in at expectations, I think you will see the market rally up a little as well. For Capitulation to happen, AAPL has to report poor earnings. So this could delay that event for another quarter.
The DXY and TNX are going to be closely monitored. On Friday, DXY started to rollover on a combination of the WSJ article suggesting the Fed will do 75 BPS hike in November and 50 BPS in December, and Japan intervening with the FX market.
DXY has some catalysts this week with EU interest rate decisions on Thursday. Could be a negative catalyst for the dollar.
If the DXY keeps falling, I will look at starting a position in GLD or NEM as I think Gold will start catching bids. I would like to grab a June 2023 ITM call and just forget about. Gold moves slowly, but in this environment, it could turn into a nice flight to safety if the DXY starts to drop.
Wild card this week will be the PCE inflation data on Friday. This could spark a rally on its own if the data is cooler.

Current Positions and Plays -

I continued to hold my core puts for 11/30 on Friday and took a beating. As we kept going up, I kept adding an additional contract as we climbed. Probably stupid, probably genius, not sure which one yet. Most likely scenario for me here is to roll these out to March 2023 3300p for $100 a contract and just leave this position alone.
I will look to do small scalps this week and next since we have a lot of landmines ahead.

Check the full calendar here: stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
Fed Speakers are in a blackout period so we won't hear from them until 11/04.
Tuesday - Consumer Confidence report at 10am
Wednesday - Building permits at 8:30am and New Home sales at 10am
Thursday - GDP data and Durable Home Goods at 8:30am
Thursday - 🇪🇺 ECB Interest Rate Hike Decision at 8:15. This is expected to be 75 BPS.
Thursday - 🇪🇺 LaGarde Speaks at 10:15am
Thursday - 🇬🇧 BoE Woods Speaks
Friday - PCE inflation data at 8:30am ⚠️

SPY Technicals - The 30 min and 1 hour are getting close to overbought. 4 hour and Daily are neutral.
There is bullish divergence on the 4 hour and daily chart which points to SPY hitting near 378. If that runs past 380 then we got a much larger divergence happening that would suggest a nice move up from a technical perspective.
SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 362 is the .000 line. Bulls keep recovering this line. This is proving to be solid support now.
SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 349 is the .500. That .500 level is the real deal and the current YTD low.
SPY - The 200 Weekly SMA is 359. The bulls need to keep this level.

We don't have much on the calendar on Monday so we could see a choppy day/ continuation from Friday. Consolidation though seems to be what we will see given the amount of data coming after Monday.
I would imagine this week to be pretty choppy with a 10 point range forming until we get to AAPL's earnings on Thursday.
I will be waiting until 10:30am and see if I can set up some intraday Fibs and try and identify any scalps.
NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this.
This is not financial advice

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