Current Positions and Plays -

I rolled my 11/30 puts into 03/23 ones just in case this bear market rally has more legs to it. I will continue to build up this position and play scalps along the way. I know where this market is ultimately headed, I just need to make sure I give myself enough time to play it.
I scalped some AAPL calls today for a nice gain. If the market wants to run, AAPL is going to lead the charge.
I will look to do small scalps this week and next since we have a lot of landmines ahead.

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for TUESDAY for SPY:

Earnings will start to fuel the price action for the next few days. UPS kicks us off in the morning and all eyes will be on whether they mimic what FedEx said about the holiday season being a little slower this year. GOOGL and MSFT report afterhours so we could see some de-risking heading into the close.
I still expect this week to be pretty choppy with a 10 point range forming until we get to AAPL's earnings on Thursday.
If we get a dip to 373, I will look to re-enter my AAPL 150c again for a daily scalp.
I will be waiting until 10:30am and see if I can set up some intraday Fibs and try and identify any scalps.

All eyes on the big tech earnings this week. GOOGL, MSFT, META, AMZN, and AAPL all report within 48 hours of each other.
AAPL's earnings will be the key for a trend setter moving forward. If AAPL reports stellar earnings, we got a rally that could last a few weeks until the CPI report on 11/10. If the earnings are terrible, could trigger a major sell off as the biggest company is showing cracks and gives us a hint that a major recession is already brewing. If AAPL comes in at expectations, I think you will see the market rally up a little as well. For Capitulation to happen, AAPL has to report poor earnings. So this could delay that event for another quarter.
DXY has some catalysts this week with EU interest rate decisions on Thursday. Could be a negative catalyst for the dollar.
If the DXY keeps falling, I will look at starting a position in GLD or NEM as I think Gold will start catching bids. I would like to grab a June 2023 ITM call and just forget about. Gold moves slowly, but in this environment, it could turn into a nice flight to safety if the DXY starts to drop.
Wild card this week will be the PCE inflation data on Friday. This could spark a rally on its own if the data is cooler.

Check the full calendar here: stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
Fed Speakers are in a blackout period so we won't hear from them until 11/04.
Tuesday - Consumer Confidence report at 10am
Wednesday - Building permits at 8:30am and New Home sales at 10am
Thursday - GDP data and Durable Home Goods at 8:30am
Thursday - 🇪🇺 ECB Interest Rate Hike Decision at 8:15. This is expected to be 75 BPS.
Thursday - 🇪🇺 LaGarde Speaks at 10:15am
Thursday - 🇬🇧 BoE Woods Speaks
Friday - PCE inflation data at 8:30am ⚠️

SPY Technicals - The 30 min and 1 hour are basically overbought. 4 hour and Daily are still neutral.
There is bullish divergence on the 4 hour and daily chart. If SPY runs past 380 then we got a much larger divergence happening that would suggest a nice move up from a technical perspective.
SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 362 is the .000 line. Bulls keep recovering this line. This is proving to be solid support now.
SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 349 is the .500. That .500 level is the real deal and the current YTD low.
SPY - The 200 Weekly SMA is 359. The bulls need to keep this level.

$SPY - levels 62 > 367 > 370 > 373 > 375 > 378 > 380 (major level) > 383 > 386
NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this.
This is not financial advice

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