• Monday: EU CPI in premarket
• Tuesday: OPEC meeting (been spicy lately) premarket; JOLTS at 10am
• Wednesday: FOMC rate hike @ 2pm; Daddy JPow speaks to us at 2:30pm (event of the week) ⚠️
• Thursday: ECB talks in premarket; normal US data 830am
• Friday: US Unemployment rate @ 0830 (this is a close second to FOMC) ⚠️

• With the majors out of the way now, I’m not putting much thought into the rest of the earnings reports this season.

• Last week: I’m holding some heavy SPX put bags for March 2023 at the moment - 3400p.  I have 4 of them now and not enjoying it.  I traded calls on the AAPL + JPow optimism to make up for what I was getting thrashed on.  Didn’t quite balance out, but I didn’t really get the memo until Wednesday.
• I spent a lot of time this weekend on my latest thinking - Market Thesis: We're in September/October 1973. What's next? - https://stonks.chat/symbol/SPY/posts/294 - give it a read - some really interesting charts in there.  If you don’t like charts, then skip to bottom.
• There’s a lot of folks fighting out there right now - between oil/energy, bulls/bears, UK (itself), and real fighting - Ukraine/Russia.
• I am grinding my teeth with this wild bull run into FOMC.  I’m 50/50 as to whether he’s going to give the bulls & politicians what they want and send this thing to 410 — or if he’s going to bring the heat and do at least 75bps + not give any room for misunderstanding that he’s not slowing down anytime soon (ie Jackson Hole).  
• The bulls are expecting 75bps + slow down or even Pivot talk.  I just don’t see how we bring down inflation with a Fed Fund rate anywhere near where it is.  6%+ at least is needed.  If you want to see what a real one looks like, go back to the 70’s and 80’s — it was as high as 20% to tame inflation (which was only a few points higher at the peak).  Let's also note unemployment is very low.
• JPow is a magician though and I expect nothing less this round.  December I think he’s going to upset the bulls when those updated projections come out
• Then after we get beyond Wednesday, we’ve got Friday’s unemployment rate - will it start ticking up?  It’s necessary to support any sort of Pivot rationale.  He’s not backing down until that starts going up significantly.  The housing market is already in the process of imploding, so that’s one tickbox.

• SPY levels:  373, 380, 386, 390, 396, 400, 410
• Chart - Weekly: Bullish - for now.  I don’t see it lasting many weeks.
• Chart - Daily: Bullish - we were right last week on the Daily that 390 was the max. Can’t call this one with FOMC, but I lean 410 max.
• Chart - 4h: Bullish - not far from some overbought status, but we know the 4h loves to extend itself.

• Current position: 4 SPX 3600p 11/30 that I’m bag holding after the train ran me over last.  I bought at every level I said I would - and I sure hope I’m done.  Last one I’ll buy is 400.
• We’re at 390 as of Friday.  That’s a real line and we’ve moved 30 points from 360 just a few days ago, taking hit after hit from tech.  Does that get heavy at any point?
• I am buying calls if we’re above 386 - half position; double up if JPow sends it for the bulls; sell Thursday at close (before Unemployment data); re-enter Friday half position if bullish; ride to CPI.  All this out the door if 386 doesn’t hold.