There isn't much to say until JPow speaks.

I'm holding 3 SPX 3400p March 2023.  I may cut them - just to get out of the way - before the data drops at 2pm.

It's been a while since I've seen market participants so divided on what is about to happen - which means the move may be extreme - as one side capitulates.

I think the move is going to be big and go on for days, so I am going to try to wait until he's mostly done speaking - or at least gives the clear signal on when the rate hikes will start easing up AND if he sees a revision up in the terminal rate.  Then go in with confidence and size.

My gut says he gives us the 75bps on Wednesday, says 'everything is on the table' for December, says they're data dependent (like always), BUT they are seeing improvements that could push them to start tapering pace.  This sends it to the moon.

WILDCARD: If he gets asked about the terminal rate in the QA portion.  If he dodges it - no problem.  If he answers it, I think it'll be 'yes, would probably need to revise upwards after data in December' and that would stop the run in its tracks.

That stunt from the White House today was interesting and confusing.  The Fed was meeting today.  Did they let the cat out of the bag?  Or was it just a goof all around? 

We'll see....

Looks awfully bullish unless he channels his inner Volcker (he really should).

If we do get extreme bullish response, I think it's all to set it up in December for an 'unexpected' 75bps + revision of terminal rate with lots of room to knock it down, but keep it in this box its been in for a couple months now....

Good luck!