SPY - SPDR S&P 500 21:39 PM - Nov 03 2022
by: samosa

Friday, November 4th, 2022 Market Preview

It was a pretty muted day on Thursday. Not a lot of clarity in the markets with the big jobs data release on Friday in premarket. One note for the bears was they were able to close below the 373 support area, but all that is voided with a cooler jobs report. 

Current Positions and Plays - 

  • I closed out my 11/11 SPX puts for a nice profit and entered some SPX 3600p for 12/30. I got a healthy amount of these today and will look to hold them as a core position. 
  • I entered a strangle play about midday for the jobs report in the morning. I ended up way up on the put side with the flush we got at the end of the day, so I closed that side out. I have enough exposure to the downside with the December puts so I essentially am treating the call side as a small hedge if the jobs number is cooler. 


  • All eyes are on the jobs report in the morning. So lets go through some scenarios as to what to look out for. 
    • Jobs Expectations: 
      • Nonfarm Payrolls: 205k expected; 263k last month
      • Unemployment: 3.5% expected; 3.5% last month
      • Avg Hourly Wage: 0.3% expected; 0.3% last month
    • As you can see, we are expected to go way down in the jobs number this month by over 50k. 
    • Scenario 1: Jobs number comes in at or below expectations + Unemployment is unchanged. This would be a slight lean to the bullish side as the jobs number came down, but with the unemployment rate so low, that is not really a clear signal for bulls to rally the market up on. This would be a fade the rip opportunity if we moved up. 
    • Scenario 2: Unemployment comes down - This is a bearish indicator and will cancel out any hope if the jobs number comes in cooler. This has to start going up for bulls to have an advantage in the Fed narrative. 
    • Scenario 3: Unemployment goes up + Jobs are at or below expectations - This is the bullish read and the market will move up on it. 
    • Scenario 4: Unemployment is flat + Jobs come in above expectations. This is bearish and this will trigger a move down. 
    • Scenario 5: Unemployment is flat + Jobs come in above last months reading - We will test the June lows in a swift move down. 
  • I am already positioned for either side. I have my long term puts if we get a bearish move and I have the insurance in my 0DTE calls if we get a bullish move. So I am going to let the chips fall as they may. 
  • If I was all cash and the report came in slightly bullish, I would be looking at fading the rips near 373, 376, or 380 if it got that high. We have CPI next week plus the bulls will need a lot of consecutive favorable economic reports to even hint at JPow pausing anytime soon. So to play calls here for more than a scalp is super risky if the data does not support it. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 

  • Check the full calendar here: stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
  • Fed Speakers blackout period is now over.
  • Friday - Nonfarm Payrolls data at 8:30am  ⚠️
  • Friday - Fed Speaker Susan Collins speaks at 10am. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min and 1 hour are close to oversold. 4 hour and Daily are neutral. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 390 is the .236 line and was met with rejection this week.  362 is the .000 line. Bulls keep recovering this line. This is proving to be solid support now. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 349 is the .500. That .500 level is the real deal and the current YTD low. 
  • SPY - The 200 Weekly SMA is 361. The bulls need to keep this level.

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 363 > 366 > 370 > 373 > 376 > 380 (major level) > 383
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice


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