SPY - SPDR S&P 500 14:32 PM - Nov 06 2022
by: samosa

Monday, November 7th, 2022 Market Preview

 Friday was a roller coaster ride. We tested 370 three times and closed on a nice move into the close. The DXY fell off a cliff on various news from Bank of Canada, Bank of England and China re-opening optimism. Commodities and Precious metals ran off the DXY drop. It was a fun day to follow. 

Current Positions and Plays - 

  • I entered Friday with my 12/30 SPX puts position and 0DTE SPX calls to play the jobs data as a hedge. We opened up way up and I closed the SPX calls at the open for a nice gain. That increased my cash position and allowed me to stomach any negative move against my core puts position that may happen. I will look to doing this again before the CPI report. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 

  • Check the full calendar here: stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
  • Fed Speakers are all over the place this week. And I expect a few more to surprise us each day like what happened last Friday. 
  • Monday - Fed Speakers Collins and Mester at 3:40pm
  • Monday - Fed Speaker Barkin at 6:00pm. 
  • Tuesday - Midterms Elections
  • Wednesday - Wholesale Inventories at 10:00am 
  • Wednesday - Fed Speaker Barkin at 11:00am
  • Thursday - CPI Inflation Data at 8:30am  ⚠️ (I will be doing a special preview on this later this week)
  • Thursday - So many Fed officials talking following the CPI report. Going to be a wild day
  • Friday - UoM Consumer Sentiment at 10:00am

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for MONDAY for SPY:

  • All eyes will be on the futures session on Sunday night. With China confirming the zero COVID policy, do precious metals and commodities keep their move up? Does the DXY start catching bids and thus moves the market back down? Do Fed Speakers keep contradicting each other with the pace of rate hikes. 
  • I am positioned in my 12/30 puts and will continue to play short term calls on any dips to protect my core position. If I can keep stacking realized gains on short term calls while my December puts marinate, I will be sitting pretty when the market finally drops. 
  • We have CPI this week so I do expect some short covering on Wednesday if we are falling this week. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min ,1 hour, 4 hour and Daily are neutral. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 390 is the .236 line and was met with rejection this week.  362 is the .000 line. Bulls keep recovering this line. This is proving to be solid support now. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 349 is the .500. That .500 level is the real deal and the current YTD low. 
  • SPY - The 200 Weekly SMA is 361. The bulls need to keep this level.

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 363 > 366 > 370 > 373 > 376 > 380 (major level) > 383 > 386 > 390
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice
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SPDR S&P 500 - SPY

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