SPY - SPDR S&P 500 22:23 PM - Nov 07 2022
by: samosa

Tuesday, November 8th, 2022 Market Preview

The market pushed higher today on no real news. There were some rumors of Trump announcing his 2024 campaign for the presidency. Pretty telling signal that the market stayed green with the China news coming in that they are not relaxing on their Zero COVID policy.

Current Positions and Plays - 

  • My core put position took a hit today. I have them until December but damn I hate seeing red. 
  • I added a call hedge near the end of the day. I missed a better entry by being too cute and waiting for a 374 test. Never got it so I had to grab the calls much higher than I wanted. 
  • I also went a little off script and grabbed some DWAC with the elections coming tomorrow and Trump hinting at announcing a run for 2024. Probably going to get killed on this play, but I couldn't resist it. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 

  • Check the full calendar here: stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
  • Fed Speakers are all over the place this week. And I expect a few more to surprise us each day like what happened last Friday. 
  • Tuesday - Midterms Elections
  • Wednesday - Wholesale Inventories at 10:00am 
  • Wednesday - Fed Speaker Barkin at 11:00am
  • Thursday - CPI Inflation Data at 8:30am  ⚠️ (I will be doing a special preview on this later this week)
  • Thursday - So many Fed officials talking following the CPI report. Going to be a wild day
  • Friday - UoM Consumer Sentiment at 10:00am

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for TUESDAY for SPY:

  • Not much change from yesterday's preview. 
  • I think we have a few days of chop with a slight lean to the upside. Not expecting a major move until CPI on Thursday. 
  • I am positioned in my 12/30 puts and will continue to play short term calls on any dips to protect my core position. If I can keep stacking realized gains on short term calls while my December puts marinate, I will be sitting pretty when the market finally drops. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min is close to overbought. 1 hour, 4 hour and Daily are neutral. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 390 is the .236 line and was met with rejection this week.  362 is the .000 line. Bulls keep recovering this line. This is proving to be solid support now. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 349 is the .500. That .500 level is the real deal and the current YTD low. 
  • SPY - The 200 Weekly SMA is 361. The bulls need to keep this level.

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 363 > 366 > 370 > 373 > 376 > 380 (major level) > 383 > 386 > 390
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice
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SPDR S&P 500 - SPY

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