SPY - SPDR S&P 500 21:54 PM - Nov 10 2022
by: samosa

Friday, November 11th, 2022 Market Preview

Happy Veteran's Day to all those who have served. Thank you for all the sacrifices you have and are making for our great country. Now onto to Thursday's recap:
What a Day. What a Day. What a Day...
The CPI came in much cooler than anyone expected and the market went absolutely nuts. A massive rally that saw SPY break 390 and test 395. I have been very critical of these rallies in the past due to many of them being based on a lot of fluff and not much substance. Well today, the bulls got some economic data that can, at least in the short term, merit some peak inflation optimism. It was a historic day for QQQ and SPY and now 410 is firmly in the bulls sights. 

Current Positions and Plays - 

  • I entered the big CPI day fully hedged on my core December puts. That hedge paid off as I was wildly green for the day, and I still have that core position. If the market corrects by the end of the year, those puts will be up huge. But for now, I am trading unrealized losses for realized gains with scalps and hedges. This is working out well for me. 
  • I scalped calls all day long and decided to just hold my core Dec puts position overnight. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 

  • Check the full calendar here: stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
  • Fed Speakers are all over the place this week. And I expect a few more to surprise us each day like what happened last Friday. 
  • Friday - UoM Consumer Sentiment at 10:00am. This one has been a sneaky one lately. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for FRIDAY for SPY:

  • We have a bank holiday on a weekly options expiration day. This has the setup for another one of those slow grind up all day, green trend days. So I will be looking at buying any dips and playing calls for the next few weeks. There are no major landmines imo until Next week's PPI and Retail sales. But even those are kind of low on the totem pole. 
  • I will keep adding long term puts at major key levels. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min and 1 hour are overbought. 4 hour and Daily are close to overbought conditions. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 390 is the .236 line and we broke it today. I expect us to retest this line soon and most likely it turns into support.  407 is the .382 line. That level is near the 200 Daily MA as well, so I expect that to be the target for this rally. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 418 is the .236.

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 380 (major level) > 383 > 386 > 390 > 393 > 396 > 400 > 403 > 407
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice
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SPDR S&P 500 - SPY

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