SPY - SPDR S&P 500 21:39 PM - Nov 13 2022
by: samosa

Monday, November 13th, 2022 Market Preview

On Thursday, I said we had a recipe for a green trend day with the bank holiday. We had the UoM report that came out mixed. The consumer sentiment was lower and that was the bullish slant. The 5 year inflation consumer expectations went up, and that was the bearish slant. We dropped on the release, and I ended up buying the dip. We are in a short term bullish trend, so the only bearish item in the report was a long term macro data point. The market digested the report, and continued on its move upward. 

Current Positions and Plays - 

  • I continued my scalp strategy against my SPX Dec puts. I grabbed SPX calls and AAPL calls and made a nice profit on the day. 
  • I closed out all the calls and am still holding the puts. I will look at grabbing some more calls on the next drop to a key level. 
  • My core puts position was 30% of my portfolio and it now down to 10%. However my cash position has increased over 60% while holding the puts.
  • I may start grabbing Feb puts if we break above 404. I am not in a hurry to start this position just yet as I think this rally has some more legs. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 

  • Check the full calendar here: stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
  • Fed Speakers are all over the place this week. And I expect a few more to surprise us each day like what happened last Friday. 
  • Monday - Brainard Speech at 11:30am
  • Tuesday - PPI inflation release at 8:30am
  • Tuesday - Cook Speech at 9:00am
  • Tuesday - Barr Testimony at 10:00am
  • Wednesday - Retail Sales at 8:30am ⚠️
  • Wednesday - Williams Speech at 9:50am
  • Wednesday - LaGrande Speech at 10:00am (DXY implicaitons)
  • Wednesday - Waller Speech at 2:35pm 
  • Thursday - Building Permits and Housing Data at 8:30am
  • Friday - Existing Home Sales at 10:00am

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for MONDAY for SPY:

  • We don't have any economic data releasing on Monday. Waller on Sunday talked about how the Fed is not looking at relaxing, but they are most likely going to 50 BPS hike in December. This signaled a shift of focus imo to the economic projection rate more than the actual rate hike. So I would not get too bullish about the 50 BPS hike, and expect a larger projection to come in December. That means we got more rate hikes coming for longer. 
  • Even with that information, I am still in buy the dip mode. I do expect a pullback on Monday and possibly into Tuesday with the PPI data. But I will be looking for a reversal candle at a key level and will be jumping in short term calls for a few weeks out. 
  • I will keep adding long term puts at major key levels. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour, and 4 hour charts are overbought. Daily is close to overbought conditions. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 390 is the .236 line. I expect us to retest this line soon and most likely it turns into support.  407 is the .382 line. That level is near the 200 Daily MA as well, so I expect that to be the target for this rally. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 418 is the .236.

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 390 > 393 > 396 > 400 > 403 > 407 > 410 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice
0

Comments

Login to join the discussion!
No comments have been made for SPDR S&P 500. Be the first!

SPDR S&P 500 - SPY

Total Followers: 3
Follow
Link Copied to Clipboard!