• Monday: Not much.  Some ECB people talking premarket. Braindard at 11:30 (low impact, I think), FOMC Williams at 6:30pm
• Tuesday: EU GDP premarket; US PPI & NY Manufacturer Index at 830am
• Wednesday: UK CPI premarket;  US Retail Sales at 830am, FOMC Williams at 9:50am, Fed Waller at 2:35pm
• Thursday: EU CPI premarket, FOMC Bullard at 8am; Jobless Claims 830am, Bowman at 9:15am, Mester at 9:40am (lots of Fed action today…)
• Friday: Nohting.

• Last week: I wasn’t feeling so well last week, so I didn’t trade much.  CPI data was obviously more than event of the week, it was event of 2H2022.
• CPI - I was arguing with people it was going to come in not just as a downtick, but a cooler reading.  Most seem to be thinking it was going to be above expectations or hot.  We got cold - it surprised even me.  The market reacted correctly and the bulls get that one - no argument from me.  It was an impressive print.
• HOWEVER.  I, like others I respect, remain unconvinced we’re done.  While I won’t stand in the way of the December CPI, I don’t think the story will be quite the same.  With oil doing its dance and other components appearing to move up, we may get a reversal to the upside - or some more stickiness at a minimum.  This is not falling as far as it roared up.
• Look over at our friends in UK and EU - their CPI is still going up.  Did US really already reverse inflation?  I doubt it.  It’s far from dead, for sure, it’s still 7.7.  I know the markets trade way ahead of the data, but I think we’re getting ahead of ourselves to go all in on the long side.
• On Sunday, Fed Waller had a few interesting statements: “FED'S WALLER: THE FED WAS CAUGHT OFF GUARD IN 2021 WHEN INFLATION APPEARED TO MODERATE BEFORE EXPLODING.” “FED'S WALLER: THE CPI REPORT ON FRIDAY IS JUST ONE DATA POINT; MARKETS ARE FAR AHEAD.” “FED'S WALLER: GIVEN THE LEVEL OF INFLATION, THE US POLICY RATE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH.”
• Alf had some quality, in depth comments on the event: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/bear-or-bull
• The Fed’s rate just isn’t that high.  I realize some companies are moaning but it’s because they’re addicted to 0%.  I can understand that, but this could go so, so much higher and I think it will if inflation isn’t smacked down hard.  I think JPow is going to do this right now that political pressure is out of the way.  That means higher rates for longer.
• As I said last week, it’s no longer a matter of 50/75bps in December.  Who cares about that.  It’s 50bps most likely.  It’s about SEP and what those show - and I think it’s going to be revised upwards target rate - by quite a lot.  Probably even with caveat they may need to revise upwards again.  Pivot is so far off, it’s not worth talking about.  As is a pause.  Let’s not bother right now.  All the market is really looking for (and will get in December) is a tapering of speed of rate hikes - let’s get the language right.
• I’m also trying to figure out if we’re in the triple peak - Peak JPow Fear, Peak Earnings, Peak Inflation. 
• I think we’re at Peak Earnings - for sure.  We may have hit peak inflation - but I have my doubts.  We’re not at Peak JPow fear until December 14 is out of the way.  He was fear-worthy in November.
• Long brain dump, sorry.  It was important for me to put it to keyboard.
• TLDR: I’m short-term bullish on sentiment; holding long-term puts for something to break.

• SPY levels:  386, 390, 396, 400, 410, 416
• Chart - Weekly: Bullish - for now.  CPI broke the downtrend.  Ripster hasn’t turned up, but it might, which would be powerful move up.
• Chart - Daily: Bullish - there’s still more upside here - but approaching overbought.
• Chart - 4h: Bullish -  we’re right near overbought line, but 4h always likes to push through - looks green like Daily to me

• Current position: SPX 3700p Feb 28 2023 put - just one that I picked up at SPY 390.  I’ll buy at 400 and 410.
• I’ll add to my Feb puts at key levels (as noted).
• I’ll trade calls on bounces/tests of key levels.  The idea here is to pile up cash while I’m waiting for bottom to fall out.