Monday, November 20th, 2022 Market Preview
We got a holiday week ahead with all the economic data action coming in on Wednesday. Historically, this means a low volume week and thus it is favorable conditions for the bulls. However, last year we say a pretty significant move down of over 15 points on the SPY.
My gameplan for this week is survival. I am going to go light in all my positions, and not put too much weight in any major moves. I am not sure a trend can be identified this week with the holiday schedule. We are closed on Thursday and are open a half day on Friday.
JPow has a speech now on 11/30 to discuss the economic outlook and labor markets. I suspect that speech is going to be very very hawkish, so I am looking to fade any major move upward with puts for the end of the year. I am playing that this event will be ultra bearish.
My gameplan for this week is survival. I am going to go light in all my positions, and not put too much weight in any major moves. I am not sure a trend can be identified this week with the holiday schedule. We are closed on Thursday and are open a half day on Friday.
JPow has a speech now on 11/30 to discuss the economic outlook and labor markets. I suspect that speech is going to be very very hawkish, so I am looking to fade any major move upward with puts for the end of the year. I am playing that this event will be ultra bearish.
Current Positions and Plays -
- I continued my scalp strategy against my SPX Feb puts. I rolled out my Dec puts to Feb on the day Poland was hit by the missile last week.
- I closed out all the calls and am still holding the puts.
Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? -
- Check the full calendar here: stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
- Monday - A lot of Fed Speakers including Bullard at 2:45pm.
- Wednesday is the big data day with FOMC minutes, UoM Consumer Data, Durable Goods Order, and Weekly Jobless Claims.
THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for MONDAY for SPY:
- We don't have any economic data releasing on Monday. Bullard does speak at 2:45pm and he is the hawkish of them all. Last week, he hit the market with a possible 5-7% Fed Funds rate estimation, so I suspect he doubles down on that.
- I am looking at very short term trades all week. We are talking a few minutes at most and keeping my size way down. This is a good week for testing out some technical strategies.
SPY Technicals -
- SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and Daily charts are all neutral.
- SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 390 is the .236 line. I expect us to retest this line soon and most likely it turns into support. 407 is the .382 line. That level is near the 200 Daily MA as well, so I expect that to be the target for this rally.
- SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 418 is the .236.
Levels I am Watching
- $SPY - levels 386 > 390 > 393 > 396 > 400 > 403 > 407 > 410
- NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this.
- This is not financial advice
SPDR S&P 500 - SPY
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