• Monday: Nothing
• Tuesday: FOMC Mester @ 11am; George @ 2:15pm, Bullard at 2:45pm
• Wednesday: US Jobless @ 0830; UMich Sentiment at 10am, New Homes at 10am; FOMC Minutes at 2pm ⚠️
• Thursday: Thanksgiving!  US Market is closed for the full day.
• Friday: Nothing, US Market is closed at 1pm EST.

• Last week: I was mostly offline last week, I think I made two trades that were quick.  Two wins, so that’s something.  Added one more to my Feb 2023 3700p stash (now at 2)
• The FOMC Members have taken a more cautious (not hawkish) tone after the last FOMC than before it.  They’re projecting out exactly what the Fed is going to do and trying to slow this recent post-CPI rally down.  Doing a good job, I’d say, if that’s their mission.
• Bullard will keep warning caution that rates are going higher - even to 6%+ (still nothing by comparison to the 70’s)
• Minutes will be an interesting read on Wednesday at 2pm  - we’ll get to see how divided they are on pace.
• As I said last week, it’s no longer a matter of 50/75bps in December.  Who cares about that.  It’s 50bps most likely.  It’s about SEP and what those show - and I think it’s going to be revised upwards target rate - by quite a lot.  Probably even with caveat they may need to revise upwards again.  Pivot is so far off, it’s not worth talking about.  As is a pause.  Let’s not bother right now.  All the market is really looking for (and will get in December) is a tapering of speed of rate hikes - let’s get the language right.
• Are we into Triple Peak? Peak JPow Fear, Peak Earnings, Peak Inflation. 
• I think we’re at Peak Earnings - for sure.  We may have hit peak inflation - but I have my doubts based on history.  We’re not at Peak JPow fear until December 14 is out of the way.  He was fear-worthy in November.
• This week: Low volume holiday week.  I’m expecting it to move up ahead of Thursday.  All bets are off for Friday, it was a blood bath last year.
• TLDR: I’m short-term bullish on sentiment for the Fed Trade; holding long-term puts for something to break (bigger than FTX).