• Monday: Consumer Inflation Expectations @ 10am?
• Tuesday: US CPI @ 0830 ⚠️
• Wednesday: FOMC statement @ 2pm; JPow takes the mic at 2:30pm.  Don’t forget this is SEP release as well ⚠️⚠️
• Thursday: ECB & BOE rate update/hikes @ 0700 & 0815. US Retail Sales & NY Manufacturing at 0830
• Friday: EUR CPI at 0500 and US S&P PMI @ 0945

• Last week: I kept it light, traded very little, and ended the week up nicely.  I was totally wrong about the first half of the week (from my Week Ahead last Sunday).  That was apparently immediately on Monday, so I adjusted my sails.
• Repeating what I said last Sunday: I could be wrong, but I think the bulls are nearing maxed out on the Fed Trade + Peak Inflation narrative.  There will be little to get excited about after Dec 14.  It’s going to be 50bps (best case), he’s going to lay out a path of higher rates and longer - just slower to get there.  He’s going to warn there’s much work to do, still.
• CPI will keep coming down no matter what - maybe not in real terms but definitely in relative to YoY (very important to understand this point!).  The real number could be 10% inflation but the YoY vs 2021/2022 will keep dropping (just math..).  Unless we get a return of inflation run in 2023 later in the year - very possible.  Hello 1970’s!
• After the Fed Trade is done with, I don’t see the bull case - we’re staring down a recession, bad earnings, rising unemployment, no QE (QT, actually).  I’m calling this the Recession Trade.
• I expect Monday to be muted.  Tuesday will pop off due to CPI but even that will be tame because Dad speaks to us on Wednesday afternoon.
• He will thread the needle like the magician that he is.
• Then the market will pick a direction around 2:45/3pm.
• It will set the trend for the rest of the year.  Either we’re drilling another 10-20% from here; or we’re going to Santa Rally until EOY - then get the cliff dive in Q1.  I’m ready for either - and again - JPow will set the trend on Wednesday - plenty of time to trade it, don’t get in a rush while he’s talking.
• Recession is coming, it’s just coming slower than we thought - unemployment hasn’t shown up in the reports yet, earnings from AAPL were still strong, and consumer spending still shockingly strong.
• DXY being down is becoming a bad thing for the market
• Swap out TNX and put TLT on your watchlist
• VIX is getting sparky (finally)

• SPY levels:  396, 400, 405 (200MA), 410, 416
• Chart - Weekly: Bearish - oh boy.  I’ll post this chart below.  We’ve seen this move 3 other times recently.  Get ready.
• Chart - Daily: Neutral - bearish lean, but you can’t make a move until JPow drops the SEP + speaks.
• Chart - 4h: Neutral - same, pointless until Wednesday afternoon.

• Current position: Nothing.
• I’ll open an SPX strangle on Monday afternoon for Wednesday expiration - for CPI.
• I’ll close the winning side, let the loser rip (why not).  I’ll then open a new strangle on Wednesday around 1pm for Friday expiration.
• I’ll close the winning side on Wednesday afternoon at some point, and let the loser ride.
• Those are the short-term trades.
• Bond market + weekly chart tells me what’s really coming - but pointless to make that move before Wednesday’s close.  I’ll be looking to add Jan/Feb puts.