• Monday: Nothing.
• Tuesday: US Housing data @ 0830
• Wednesday: US Consumer Confidence at Housing data at 1000
• Thursday: US GDP and Jobless claims at 0830
• Friday: US PCE at 0830 and UMich at 1000

• Last week: I ended the week solidly higher.  I didn’t hit what I was expecting for such an explosive week, but still nothing to complain about.  Learn, optimize.
• Look at that range from last Sunday for the week https://stonks.chat/symbol/SPY/posts/315 — basically nailed top and bottom! “Stock Market Week Ahead: December 12, 2022 - SPY 380/410 range this week” 🏆
• What I said last Sunday is what happened at FOMC, but he was even more hawkish: “I could be wrong, but I think the bulls are nearing maxed out on the Fed Trade + Peak Inflation narrative.  There will be little to get excited about after Dec 14.  It’s going to be 50bps (best case), he’s going to lay out a path of higher rates and longer - just slower to get there.  He’s going to warn there’s much work to do, still.”
• My biggest mistake last week:  Not holding until Friday the bucket of puts I bought on FOMC Day after JPow confirmed hawkish stance.  I sold them on Thursday early around 391.50 SPY, but that was only the beginning as we found out with SPY closing at 383 on Friday.  I didn’t want to stand in the way of OpEx just in case it did something mechanical and silly, but that fear ended up being hokum and very costly from a trade I’d been planning for a long time.
• We also saw - right in front our eyes on CPI day - the shift from Inflation/Fed Trade to Recession Trade I’ve been looking for.
• I no longer consider CPI worth playing and am down-ranking it in importance going forward.  The only reason I’d put it back in the mix is if we saw 2 prints HIGHER than previous months.  Until then….thanks for the good times we shared.
• After this week, there is no data-based bull case - we’re staring down a recession, bad earnings, rising unemployment, no QE (QT, actually).
• The only hope bulls have is for something major/critical to break (which would cause a huge dip anyways) - that would cause JPow to cut rates.  Until that point, he’s not backing down/pivoting until end of 2023 at earliest.  He will hold the rate once he’s got it to at least 5.25% until then.  He’s going to beat inflation even if he goes too far (which I agree with).  People forget how much shit they gave the man early on when ending QE and not raising rates.
• Now we turn to the Recession Trade.  What matters? Unemployment rate, consumer spending, and corporate earnings.  These are the new CPI/FOMC.
• In the Recession Trade, DXY going up is positive for SPY; down is negative for SPY.  This is a flip of just a couple weeks ago.
• TLT is where the focus needs to be right now (replaces TNX on my watchlist).  As TLT goes up, SPY should come down.  This indicates a move out of the stock market into Bonds.
• VIX is still puzzling everybody - but I’m looking for it to spin up hard in January.  I think institutional money is just trying to keep it calm, sweep problems under the rug until 2022 year end prints.  Then they’ll pile into puts and run the VIX up.  I see January as being down 10-15%
• I also want to be clear:  I don’t expect this to move straight down.  It will stumble down the stairs.  There will be plenty of bear market rallies (based on technicals) all the way to the bottom (wherever that is)
• I’ve still got SPY 330 circled for April 2023.  I’ll post the updated chart below.
• There’s actually some decent data for the week - Housing Data should continue to show decline; US GDP on Thursday; Friday is most important with PCE and UMich consumer sentiment.  If you want to go risk-off, Friday is the day to avoid until all the data is out.  I might do that.
• US Markets will be closed on Monday, December 26 for Christmas.

• SPY levels:  370, 380, 390, 393, 400
• 200 MA: 401.50
• Chart - Weekly: Bearish - Ripster clouds are just crossing down.  Buckle up.  We’ve got a long ways to go down.
• Chart - Daily: Bearish - Same as Weekly.
• Chart - 4h: Bearish - but likely to get oversold soon.

• Current position: Nothing.  I closed out in the last hour of Futures on Friday.
• I’m buying Feb 2023 /ES Puts this week.  I’ll pick some up Sunday night at 385 (SPY).
• Then I’ll be looking to add more at 390, 393, 396.  I can’t see 400 getting tested, but I’ll buy there as well.
• I don’t see any other trade. If there’s a Santa Clause rally, I will only use it as puts buy opportunity.