• Monday: US Markets were closed.
• Tuesday: US Housing data @ 1000, Dallas MFG Index @ 1030
• Wednesday: US Housing Data @ 1000
• Thursday:  US Jobless claims at 0830 (Event of the week)
• Friday: Chicago PMI @ 0945

• Last week: Look at that range from last Sunday for the week  [ https://stonks.chat/symbol/SPY/posts/317 ] - 376/390 - off just barely - range was 375/387.50 🏆 Two weeks in a row!  I ended the week a bit lower on my account, due to an unrealized ass kicking on some ES puts that I bought at ~380 - should have stuck to my rules and waited for 385 that was inevitable (we’re there tonight)
• As I said last week, from my view, there is no data-based bull case - we’re staring down a recession, bad earnings, rising unemployment, no QE (QT, actually).
• The only hope bulls have is for something major/critical to break (which would cause a huge dip anyways) - that would cause JPow to cut rates.  Until that point, he’s not backing down/pivoting until end of 2023 at earliest.  He will hold the rate once he’s got it to at least 5.25% until then.  He’s going to beat inflation even if he goes too far (which I agree with). 
• Now we turn to the Recession Trade.  What matters? Unemployment rate, consumer spending, and corporate earnings.  These are the new CPI/FOMC.  The bulls are thinking a goldilocks scenario (unemployment remains low, consumer stays strong, yet inflation comes all the way down) is possible - and it is - but just seems very unlikely to me.
• VIX is still asleep - but I’m looking for it to light up hard in January.  I think institutional money is just trying to keep it calm, sweep problems under the rug until 2022 year end prints.  Then they’ll pile into puts and run the VIX up.  I see January as being down 10-15%
• I also want to be clear:  I don’t expect this to move straight down.  It will stumble down the stairs.  There will be plenty of bear market rallies (based on technicals) all the way to the bottom (wherever that is)
• I’ve still got SPY 330 circled for April 2023.
• As for this week - I see a slow tick upwards until Thursday.  Baby Santa Rally, if you will.  This is historically a low volume and green week.  There’s nothing on the calendar that will spook the market.  Only unexpected international would jolt it.  I think we’ll cross SPY 390 and maybe even touch 393.  China re-opening will help and is probably the biggest news this week.
• Friday - good luck - that’s EOY, EOM, EOQ - the final 30 minutes will be fun to watch with some popcorn.
• US Markets will be closed on Monday, January 1 in observation of New Years.

• SPY levels:  375, 380, 390, 393, 400
• 200 MA: 400.67
• Chart - Weekly: Neutral - Nothing clear here.  Lines are tangled and RSI is in the middle.
• Chart - Daily: Bullish - this looks to confirm my above note about slow uptick this week into Thursday.
• Chart - 4h: Bullish - same.

• Current position: I’m holding a bigger bucket than I currently want of /ES 3700P March 2023
• If we get to 390 SPY, I’ll add more.
• I’ll probably pick up some /ES long to hold for the week before the open.
• I’m not going to trade much this week, particularly as my bear claws are out, but the volume & news isn’t there this week to agree with me.