• Monday: US Markets closed for MLK Jr Day.
• Tuesday: NY Empire Index @ 830; FOMC Williams @ 3pm
• Wednesday: UK CPI @ 2am; EU CPI @ 5am; US PPI + Retail @ 830; US Industrial Production @ 915; FOMC Harker @ 2pm.
• Thursday:  US Housing Data @ 830; Philly Fed Data @ 830; FOMC Williams @ 6:30pm
• Friday: FOMC Harker @ 900; Fed Waller @ 1pm

• Tuesday: GS + Banks premarket.
• Wednesday: SCHW premarket.
• Thursday: PG premarket, NFLX afterhours.

• Last week: The run into CPI was impressive and held.  Strong move from the bulls.  I was doing good up until my CPI strangle got absolutely roasted because we didn’t move at all (worst case scenario).  It was a losing week for me, but it’s on the back of a few week hot streak.
• SPY right at the sloping line of resistance of 400.  It’s riding above its 200MA now.
• QQQ getting close to its sloping line of resistance of 285.  It’s below its 200MA.
• DIA/Dow is not far from an all-time high - mind blowing, really.
• Both of these lines, everybody is watching because it’s where the rejections have been happening for a year now.  Will it hold true once more?
• I think so - but there’s real risk to them breaking out above them and going nuts.  I’m trying to keep it light and wait for confirmation - in either direction.  Right now, it’s gambling at these levels to be on either side.
• VIX is at almost 18.  Are we going to 15?
• DXY is under 102 (we were at 115 top in September).  I think it’s going to find a lot of support at 100-101 that would be tough to push through.
• HOWEVER….We’re going into earnings season.  We’ve got layoffs piling up in tech, banks preparing for loan delinquencies, some warnings being sounded, and once again the fate of the market is probably on Apple.
• Unemployment + consumer spending remain the key numbers for me.  The upward move in consumer credit and downward move in savings should be a note of caution.
• CPI is no longer important - it’s just going to keep going down for now, we know this.
• Is the Fed going to cut?  I don’t see why on earth they would right now - or even this year.  People are saying they’ve gone too far.  How so?  CPI is coming down, the market is trying to push through 400 on 60 year low unemployment, consumer spending that won’t seem to back down, and earnings that seem OK so far.  Where’s the pain?  This is the sweetheart scenario for the Fed — plus it lets them keep hitting it with QT and ensure inflation doesn’t come back.  A pause - sure - that will happen in a few meetings, but not cuts.  Unless something major breaks.
• After being in a chop box since mid-December, we finally ripped up starting Jan 6.  January is typically a strong month with new capital inflows, renewed optimism, all that.  We’re currently in a 20 point SPY rally, which was inevitable.
• I remain bearish overall, though - we haven’t seen the bottom yet.  I think we’ll see SPX 3200-3300 this year as the bottom. However, I am just as fine trading these rallies, but keeping it light and rarely holding overnight.
• The sentiment - right or wrong - is definitely to the upside for now.  Be careful standing in front of the train when bulls are in charge.
• SPY range this week (guess): 390 - 402

• SPY levels:  390, 396, 400, 405
• 200 MA: 397.25

• Current position: I’m holding /NQ (Nasdaq100) puts for March 2023 that I’ve gotten tangled up with and am now at a loss on.  I’ve got time on them, but I’m looking to exit at flat (almost had the opportunity on Friday before we reversed up) and reassess.
• I’m going to ignore my /NQ position and just trade what’s in front of me.  Right now, that’s scalping /ES after the more important events this week, of which there are many