Maverick
Created: Jun 21, 2020
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Maverick - 1 year ago
Oops.  This was for March 6, 2023.
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Maverick - 1 year ago
I'll add weekly expected moves next week.
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Maverick - 1 year ago
CPI expectations are 6.7% and 0.1% MoM
Core is 5.6% and 0.2% MoM
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Maverick - 1 year ago
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Maverick - 1 year ago
Very well written thesis for the next few weeks. 
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Maverick - 1 year ago
Well written.  

I think the Recession Trade arrived a few days early.  It'll be a long ride though.
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Maverick - 1 year ago
Excellent plan.

"
  • If the market is near 52 week lows at 3pm, I will not play a strangle, and just play the reaction to the data on Thursday. 
  • If the market can close green and/or the charts are not in oversold territory on the 30 min and up charts, then I will enter the strangle." 
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Maverick - 1 year ago
"There is not really anything worth playing with a large position with us just a few days away from the major economic reports. "

Spot on.

This is a week to just prepare yourself for the big trade of the week on Thursday.
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Maverick - 1 year ago
I think it's possible we could see 385/390 on this run BUT if the Fed Pivot theory doesn't catch some validation from JPow or others, then it's going to go away as fast as it came, then we're just left with a technical bounce and a DXY that's going to moonshot.
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Maverick - 1 year ago
Monday - How It Went - twitter.com/stonks_maverick/st...
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Maverick - 1 year ago
Friday recap - got that one wrong! twitter.com/stonks_maverick/st...
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Maverick - 1 year ago
Scenario 3 for Friday.
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Maverick - 1 year ago
Only thing I see messing up my exit tomorrow: BOE rate hike (DXY may pull back), dip buyers.
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Maverick - 1 year ago
JPow in Friday is a non-event.

Good job looking beyond just the rate hike - the Fed Funds Rate projection is what matters since it's forward looking.

I think Scenario 1 is most likely.  He can't stop or slow down.  He was yelling at all of us from JHole.
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Maverick - 1 year ago
Couldn't resist that end of day momentum, despite both our previews.

I'm seeing the bull case headed into FOMC, but not massive run like CPI - just cautious optimism.  You said it right - the bears actually want that.  
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Maverick - 1 year ago
🔥
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Maverick - 1 year ago
Awesome CPI preview.  Hadn't seen anybody pull all that data together so nicely.  Keep doing this for us clowns.
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Maverick - 1 year ago
I think the scenario could be one you didn't note: Under expectations on the jobs add but wages up.

I'm looking for full Scenario 1 though.
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Maverick - 1 year ago
"It looks like Friday is the day to play anything. So survival until then will be key for me this week. "

Mini version of last week.

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Maverick - 1 year ago
Friday recap: JPow let his inner hawk soar and scared the shit out of the market.  I was setup perfectly with my options strangle, but tinkered with it about 20 min before the main event.  That was very costly.  I would have made ~5x what I did, had I done...nothing.

+$2637
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Maverick - 1 year ago
Paper hands...
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Maverick - 1 year ago
Well, we definitely agree on Monday's moves! 

That's either really good - or really bad. 🤡
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Maverick - 1 year ago
Thursday recap: Neither scenario was in play.  I exited my overnight puts for a tiny profit at the open.  Then caught a ride on a call in the afternoon.  🥱

P&L: +$370
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Maverick - 1 year ago
Hot Girl Summer Rally is going to take a pause to pay its technical taxes, then better put on your bull suit.
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Maverick - 1 year ago
I love that you won't even consider calls right now. You big 🐻
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Maverick - 1 year ago
Wednesday recap: 🏆 "Scenario 2: We open under 427, puts to 424.  I already have mine, so I’d sell - happily."  I did just that.

P&L: +$5745 (almost cleaned up my mess from last few days)
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Maverick - 1 year ago
The spark to downside could be at 2pm if Fed minutes show different stance than what Powell communicated at conference. 
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Maverick - 1 year ago
Friday recap: Scenario 2 was the only one in play.  If I would have just done that, I would have been green for the day and upset I didn't make more.  Instead, I just kept buying puts. Wrong day for that (so far).  Gotta own it when you are dumb, so...

P&L: -$5,000 😔
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Maverick - 1 year ago
🏆 ”Scenario 1: We open above 421, calls to 425 (max) if you’re feeling frisky.”

P&L: +$1000
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Maverick - 1 year ago
🏆 " Scenario 1: If we gap to 415/416 on good CPI data (cool), give it a few minutes to dance at the open, then calls for a few points, max 420.  Don’t try to flip over to puts - dangerous game"

+0

I made no trades today.
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Maverick - 1 year ago
Good luck tomorrow.  Looking for cool cool or hot hot. 💰
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Maverick - 1 year ago
Thank you for posting expected and last month - very helpful.
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Maverick - 1 year ago
🏆"Scenario 2: If we open below 413, puts to 410.  Then stay out of the way - CPI optimism is lurking…"

P&L: +$520
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Maverick - 1 year ago
🏆 "Scenario 1: If we gap to 416, taking puts down to 412/410."

Look at today's chart and behold! 😁

P&L: +$1,600
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Maverick - 1 year ago
I like the few week outlook; but de-risking for major data releases.  This should do well for you.

I'm going to continue to close out daily.
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Maverick - 1 year ago
I really like how your previews are taking shape/organized lately.

WMT theory - it's not a bad theory, really.  I hadn't considered that.  The timing is....spot on for you theory though (20 days early?) 🤔

I agree that it's a boxing match.  My scenarios are very tight because of this.  It'll get more volatile for the week after Tuesday AH.  Watch that VIX....

Your note about 397 and puts is opposite of my 397 and calls.  I think if we gap 397 you're going to get tech boys piling in for a strong close.
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Maverick - 1 year ago
July 25 Recap: Scenario 1 played out well, it just took all day in the Chop Box to get it done. "If we open below 395, puts to 393/390.  Tough trade."  I was out on the first dip to 394 and done for the day.

P&L: +$920
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Maverick - 1 year ago
If we get HGSR starting this week, then we're months away from the wheels coming completely off this market and going back to pre-COVID levels on SPY.
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Maverick - 1 year ago
"If you are looking for a great week to take off to preserve your capital, this is the week. Don't get me wrong, I will be trading it everyday, but I am an addict. But, this is a great week to watch the market, not play the market." 

Great advice.
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Maverick - 1 year ago
"If you are holding anything overnight after Monday, you are either guessing or have insider information. "  🤣
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Maverick - 1 year ago
I still think we need a pullback before FOMC.  If we consolidate in 390/400 ahead of FOMC, earnings next week don't move market too much, I think we'll go big to the upside.  At least for a little while.
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Maverick - 1 year ago
July 21 recap:  Scenario 1 was close, but not optimal. "If we open at/above 395, calls to 398/400 (max).  Too risky beyond that."  Dip after the open was a bit more than expected.

P&L: +$780
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Maverick - 1 year ago
I think a big ass rally is coming at some point after FOMC.  We need to pull back first...but then..it's on.  Even though I'm a bear.
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Maverick - 1 year ago
I agree with you that both puts and calls are at a bad risk/reward right now.
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Maverick - 1 year ago
July 21 - Day Ahead - stonks.chat/group/7/posts/552
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Maverick - 1 year ago
Here I come...to save the preview! 🦸‍♂️
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Maverick - 1 year ago
July 20 recap: Scenario 1 was the move. "If we at/below 395, calls to 398/400 (max).  Then it’s time to find a puts entry."

P&L: +$860 (I didn't do my own scenario, otherwise would have been up 3x as much)
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Maverick - 1 year ago
Even in the worst of times, when the mighty SPY wants to run, you can't stand in the way.
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Maverick - 1 year ago
I think all action on Tuesday will be done in futures/premarket, then stuck in the chop box pending any meteorites like AAPL again.
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Maverick - 1 year ago
"AAPL just confirmed that the itch the market has been feeling was in fact a STD."

🤡 😂
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Maverick - 1 year ago
"but that tricky VIX was also green. That scared me like when my wife looks through my internet history and I locked in the profit. "

Damn, I knew you were scared about the VIX, but didn't realize you were sweating.
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Maverick - 2 years ago
August 2021 Investor Presentation - important read

ir.gritstonebio.com/static-fil...
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Maverick - 2 years ago
Quite a volatile chart, as well.  Around major events, it can easily move 100% on the upside or -50% on the downside. 🤠
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Maverick - 2 years ago
What's the O/S and float on this one @ProfofPump ?
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Maverick - 2 years ago
72 now - good call!
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Maverick - 2 years ago
The SavaDx is something that's never been done before, I believe.

If the Phase 2 data at 9 months shows a cognitive improvement, it will be the first one in history.
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Maverick - 2 years ago
Update PR on June 21, 2021


  • Open-label Study Completes Patient Enrollment
  • Cognition Maintenance Study Initiated May 2020, now 30% Enrolled
  • 6-month Biomarker Data to be Presented at AAIC Conference in July
  • 9-month Safety & Cognition Data to be Presented at AAIC Conference 
  • Clinical Results with SavaDx to be Presented at AAIC Conference
  • Phase 3 Program Initiation Remains On-track for 2nd Half 2021
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Maverick - 2 years ago
I'm expecting/hoping for a PR noting that they'll be presenting at the AAIC on July 26 (not confirmed yet).  I think we'll be in for a wild ride if/when that happens.
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Maverick - 2 years ago
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Maverick - 2 years ago
May 2021 Investor Presentation (must read) - cassavasciences.com/static-fil...
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Maverick - 2 years ago
@Linus - what do you think?
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Maverick - 2 years ago
They cancelled the EUA and went BLA on June 10.  I was lucky because I got impatient and sold on June 7.

ocugen.gcs-web.com/news-releas...
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Maverick - 2 years ago
AD and PD are two applications, but there are others

stocktwits.com/bio99/message/3...
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Maverick - 2 years ago
$250M shelf - they've used $50M of it, so $200M left.

sec.report/Document/0001104659...
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Maverick - 2 years ago
Be sure to read the Investor Presentation linked above.  It's crucial to understanding this one.
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Maverick - 2 years ago
May 2021 investor deck ir.ocugen.com/presentations
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Maverick - 2 years ago
I picked up a position at an average of 33.25.  Looking to exit prior to May 5.
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Maverick - 2 years ago
TPGY-June2021.jpg 179.94 KB
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Maverick - 3 years ago
180M grant from Canadian government to build a battery factory

Translate it to English - some nice surprises.

lapresse.ca/affaires/entrepris...
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Maverick - 3 years ago
Monday, March 15, 2021

10:30 a.m. | The Prime Minister will make an announcement and hold a media availability. He will be joined by Premier of Quebec François Legault, Minister of Innovation, Science and Industry François-Philippe Champagne, Quebec's Minister of Economy and Innovation Pierre Fitzgibbon, and President and Founder of Lion Electric Marc Bédard.




| Palais des congrès de Montréal

| 1001 Place Jean-Paul-Riopelle

newswire.ca/news-releases/medi...
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Maverick - 3 years ago
I think it's going to be very close to end of March / early April at the latest.  The one blocker they had was removed today with their updated Financials filing.  They now wait for SEC (14 days max).  If no comments, then merger vote filing.
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Maverick - 3 years ago
Moneylion?
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Maverick - 3 years ago
Fresh from Bloomberg on Saturday

bloomberg.com/news/articles/20...
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Maverick - 3 years ago
Look like two more weeks of winter.

twitter.com/timreeser/status/1...
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Maverick - 3 years ago
Based on it being Goldman Sachs behind the SPAC, I"m going to guess it will be a finance-related deal and most likely crypto.

Gemini?
BlockFi?
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Maverick - 3 years ago
Current price (at 56) values Lucid at $67 billion.  That's based on assumption that it's purchased for $12 billion at $10/share.  This seems incredibly expensive.  I think this is only happening due to excitement and lack of stock (none has been issued for acquisition, so it's just SPAC shares knocking around).  Careful out there.
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Maverick - 3 years ago
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Maverick - 3 years ago
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Maverick - 3 years ago
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Maverick - 3 years ago
This is now confirmed:

dcrbplus.com/news/news-details...
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Maverick - 3 years ago
I like this one.  Will do full DD on it soon.  Two unfortunate things: Norway based, so it will trade at a discount to US peers & no revenue for a few years.
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Maverick - 3 years ago
Updated S-4/A filed on February 3

(Just gets closer to merger date filing)

sec.report/Document/0001193125...
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Maverick - 3 years ago
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Maverick - 3 years ago
Folks are starting to figure it out. :) 

youtube.com/watch?v=9bMZddXozr...
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Maverick - 3 years ago
Follow up article from CNBC (same night as Cramer feature)

cnbc.com/2021/01/13/canadian-e...
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